The Athletics beat the White Sox 3-2 on Wednesday afternoon, wasting six shutout innings by Chicago’s starter, Davis Martin. Their winning percentage on the season falls to .239. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of them finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 12-33 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 27 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 117 games is .317. The probability of no more than 12 wins at that level is 0.29. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.40. So the White Sox right now have about a 29% to 40% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. So it’s somewhere between 1 in 3 to 2 in 5.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -4 by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .355, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.14, or about one in seven.