For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.347 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.324 — Xavier Edwards batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.320 — Trea Turner batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.316 — Steven Kwan batting against Louie Varland.
- 0.312 — Freddy Fermin batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.308 — Alec Bohm batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.296 — Jose Miranda batting against Alex Cobb.
- 0.295 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.294 — Salvador Perez batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.293 — Gunnar Henderson batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.293 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Zack Littell.
The Royals are in a very good position with two catchers who can generate hits. Combined with Witt, it makes them a strong team up the middle.
The NN produces this list of players with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.347, 0.754 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.320, 0.724 — Trea Turner batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.316, 0.724 — Steven Kwan batting against Louie Varland.
- 0.266, 0.720 — Luis Arraez batting against Edward Cabrera.
- 0.324, 0.716 — Xavier Edwards batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.278, 0.716 — Jose Iglesias batting against Bryce Miller.
- 0.296, 0.712 — Jose Miranda batting against Alex Cobb.
- 0.312, 0.712 — Freddy Fermin batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.308, 0.710 — Alec Bohm batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.283, 0.703 — Amed Rosario batting against Mitch Keller.
Although he doesn’t make the top ten, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.owns a 20-game hit streak. He continues to destroy pitchers, with a .507/.575/1.096 slash line. The NN gives him a probability of getting a hit of .696, and a .289 projected hit average against Mitch Spence.
Witt is the unanimous top pick, while Turner comes in as the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!