For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.320 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.299 — Michael Stefanic batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.298 — Logan O’Hoppe batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.295 — Yainer Diaz batting against Josh Winckowski.
- 0.295 — Kevin Pillar batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.293 — Jose Altuve batting against Josh Winckowski.
- 0.289 — Zach Neto batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.288 — Luis Arraez batting against Roddery Munoz.
- 0.288 — Freddy Fermin batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.288 — Luis Garcia batting against Griffin Canning.
The Angels look to hit well against Patrick Corbin. It might be the only time you see Pillar on the list.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.320, 0.741 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.288, 0.734 — Luis Arraez batting against Roddery Munoz.
- 0.295, 0.720 — Yainer Diaz batting against Josh Winckowski.
- 0.293, 0.717 — Jose Altuve batting against Josh Winckowski.
- 0.260, 0.706 — Jose Iglesias batting against Logan Gilbert.
- 0.288, 0.703 — Luis Garcia batting against Griffin Canning.
- 0.277, 0.700 — Steven Kwan batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.
- 0.288, 0.700 — Freddy Fermin batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.278, 0.699 — Harold Ramirez batting against Griffin Canning.
- 0.285, 0.699 — Jose Miranda batting against Gavin Williams.
Witt is now regularly beating out Arraez for the top slot. League hit average is up to .219, which make everyone a little better. Witt and Diaz are the consensus double down choice for today.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!