For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.318 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.303 — Luis Arraez batting against Max Meyer.
- 0.300 — Austin Riley batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.295 — Amed Rosario batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.294 — Luis Garcia batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.290 — Steven Kwan batting against David Festa.
- 0.286 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.285 — Travis D’Arnaud batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.284 — Jake Fraley batting against DL Hall.
- 0.282 — Donovan Solano batting against Max Meyer.
It’s an unusual list, as Kyle Freeland elevates a number of Braves hitters. Ozuna owns a high strikeout rate and a high walk rate, and usually those players don’t deliver hits that often. The opposition produces a .348 BABIP against Freeland in 2024.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.303, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting against Max Meyer.
- 0.280, 0.715 — Jose Iglesias batting against Luis Castillo.
- 0.295, 0.712 — Amed Rosario batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.318, 0.711 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.290, 0.707 — Steven Kwan batting against David Festa.
- 0.276, 0.706 — Yainer Diaz batting against James Paxton.
- 0.294, 0.703 — Luis Garcia batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.286, 0.702 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.271, 0.700 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
- 0.282, 0.698 — Donovan Solano batting against Max Meyer.
There is some agreement between the two systems. Arraez, who is still feeling the effects of a thumb injury stands as the consensus top pick. Ozuna comes in as consensus double down pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!