For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.351 — Luis Arraez batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.328 — Donovan Solano batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.315 — Jackson Merrill batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.305 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.302 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Pablo Lopez.
- 0.297 — Manny Machado batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.295 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Davis Daniel.
- 0.291 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Joe Musgrove.
- 0.290 — Jurickson Profar batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.288 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Joe Musgrove.
The Pirates have not made an official announcement about a starter, but the AP has Gonzales. If so, it looks like a very good day for the Padres. I find it cruel that Log5 adds Guerrero to the list the day after his hit streak ends.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.351, 0.768 — Luis Arraez batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.302, 0.727 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Pablo Lopez.
- 0.328, 0.726 — Donovan Solano batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.315, 0.711 — Jackson Merrill batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.286, 0.704 — Steven Kwan batting against Shota Imanaga.
- 0.305, 0.703 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.282, 0.698 — Jose Miranda batting against Brady Singer.
- 0.295, 0.697 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Davis Daniel.
- 0.297, 0.689 — Manny Machado batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.248, 0.687 — Yainer Diaz batting against Taj Bradley.
Not quite as Padres heavy, but Arraez and Solano come out as the consensus double down choice. Arraez is 0 for 7 against Gonzales with a walk and no strikeouts. Solano is three for six with two strikeouts. Machado is 6 for 11 with no walks and no strikeouts.
I suspect Arraez might not start the game due to the lefty on the mound and Arreaz’s thumb injury.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!