For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.365 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.335 — Donovan Solano batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.327 — Jackson Merrill batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.314 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.308 — Trea Turner batting against MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.308 — Yainer Diaz batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.307 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.306 — Jose Iglesias batting against Max Meyer.
- 0.304 — Manny Machado batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.303 — Luis Garcia batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.303 — David Peralta batting against Kyle Freeland.
It looks like another good night for the Padres in Colorado. They picked up nine his on Friday in 7-3 Rockies win. Freeland allows a .341 BABIP this season.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.365, 0.780 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.335, 0.733 — Donovan Solano batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.306, 0.732 — Jose Iglesias batting against Max Meyer.
- 0.327, 0.725 — Jackson Merrill batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.286, 0.723 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Nick Lodolo.
- 0.308, 0.721 — Yainer Diaz batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.307, 0.720 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.308, 0.718 — Trea Turner batting against MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.296, 0.715 — Amed Rosario batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.314, 0.713 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Freeland.
Arraez and Solano stand as the unanimous double down choices. Arraez’s probability is so high, however, you might just want to pick him to keep your streak alive.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
David,
I’m a recent follower and fan.
I’ve noticed a couple of times now that the link that should go to Louis Garcia Jr. , the Washington Nationals player, is actually going to Luis Garcia, some relief pitcher.
The correct link is:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garcilu04.shtml
It looks like you put a lot of effort into this, and thank you for that. As I said, I’m a recent follower, but so far the lists have been helping me and I appreciate that.
Take care,
Bart
Sorry about that. Both are in my DB with the same name. I need to add a JR to the hitter.