The White Sox beat the Astros 5-4 Friday night, raising the White Sox winning percentage on the season drops to .244. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of them finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 10-29 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 29 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 123 games is .321. The probability of no more than 10 wins at that level is 0.25. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.37. So the White Sox right now have about a 25% to 37% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. That about 1 in 4 to 2 in 5 odds.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -5 by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .364, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.11, or about 1 in 9.