The Giants beat the White Sox 4-1 on Tuesday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .236. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 10-25 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 29 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 127 games is .312. The probability of no more than 10 wins at that level is 0.45. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.53. Both measures are converging, and both point to about a 50% chance of a new low.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .362, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.23, or about 1 in 4.