Aaron Judge of the Yankees hit two more home runs on Sunday, part of a Yankees barrage that beat the Rockies 10-3. He now owns 51 homers on the season. His probability of breaking his own AL record of 62 homers in a season is now at 0.28 a little better than one in four. While I have not talked about breaking Barry Bonds‘ major league record of 73 in a season, the probability of that went from 0.000025 to 0.00012.