For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.305 — Yainer Diaz batting against Taijuan Walker.
- 0.304 — Luis Arraez batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.301 — Jose Altuve batting against Taijuan Walker.
- 0.296 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Brayan Bello.
- 0.295 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Walker Buehler.
- 0.293 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Walker Buehler.
- 0.293 — Gunnar Henderson batting against Walker Buehler.
- 0.293 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.292 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.291 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Walker Buehler.
It looks like a good day for the Orioles, although who knows if Walker Buehler will return to form as he recovers from a long term injury. Diaz comes out on top. He owns a career .289 BA with a .315 OBP. High BA, low OBP usually means someone who should be good at extending streaks. He’s raised both those numbers this season to .297/.323.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.304, 0.746 — Luis Arraez batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.288, 0.721 — Jose Iglesias batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.305, 0.718 — Yainer Diaz batting against Taijuan Walker.
- 0.285, 0.717 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tanner Bibee.
- 0.301, 0.712 — Jose Altuve batting against Taijuan Walker.
- 0.296, 0.707 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Brayan Bello.
- 0.277, 0.699 — Trea Turner batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
- 0.277, 0.696 — Donovan Solano batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.275, 0.695 — Jackson Merrill batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.278, 0.693 — Jarren Duran batting against Chris Bassitt.
It’s nice to see a new generation of hitters making this list. Arraez is the consensus top pick, with Diaz the double down choice.
Note that the Rangers and White Sox are playing the finish of a game suspended after four pitches, then the regularly scheduled game. That will likely influence the lineup for the second game, the game that counts here today.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!