The Rangers beat the White Sox twice on Wednesday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .231. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go no better than 9-19 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 134 games is .304. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.67. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.70. The probabilities now indicate that if the White Sox played 100 seasons from this point on, they would finish with 40 wins or fewer two thirds of the time.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .353, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.45, or nearly one half. Even generous measures of the intrinsic winning percentage of the team have their win total low.