For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.313 — Yandy Diaz batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.309 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.299 — Luis Arraez batting against Shane Baz.
- 0.287 — Jose Iglesias batting against Davis Martin.
- 0.284 — Josh Lowe batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.280 — Freddy Fermin batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.280 — Alec Burleson batting against Will Warren.
- 0.280 — Masyn Winn batting against Will Warren.
- 0.278 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.276 — Amed Rosario batting against Frankie Montas.
- 0.276 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Ryan Feltner.
Diaz now owns a career .290 BA and a .316 OBP. That OBP is made up of 245 hits and 31 walks. He’s a good example of someone who generates hits eats up some outs. That’s great for extending hit streaks, not so great for the overall offense of the club. On the other hand, he is a catcher, and that’s really good offense for the position.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.299, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting against Shane Baz.
- 0.309, 0.729 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.287, 0.718 — Jose Iglesias batting against Davis Martin.
- 0.313, 0.711 — Yandy Diaz batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.276, 0.696 — Amed Rosario batting against Frankie Montas.
- 0.280, 0.693 — Freddy Fermin batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.253, 0.690 — Yainer Diaz batting against Cole Ragans.
- 0.270, 0.688 — Jackson Merrill batting against Shane Baz.
- 0.263, 0.688 — Trea Turner batting against Max Fried.
- 0.269, 0.687 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Daniel Matthews.
The Padres platoon Arraez. I’m not sure if it’s due to his thumb injury, or his splits. It may be both. Baz is a right-hander, so Arraez should be in the lineup tonight. He’s not on the list, but Oneil Cruz owns a ten-game streak, and he’s been on fire since the Pirates removed him from shortstop.
Arraez and Witt tie for the consensus top choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!