For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.314 — Jose Miranda batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.304 — Jose Iglesias batting against Brayan Bello.
- 0.295 — Luis Arraez batting against Ty Madden.
- 0.292 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Gavin Williams.
- 0.292 — Yainer Diaz batting against Julian Aguiar.
- 0.284 — Jose Altuve batting against Julian Aguiar.
- 0.280 — Aaron Judge batting against Jack Leiter.
- 0.280 — Royce Lewis batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.278 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Julian Aguiar.
- 0.278 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Chris Flexen.
I’m a bit blown away that both Judge and Alvarez make the list, even on a day with limited games. Sluggers who walk a lot tend not to be great at extending hit streaks. Alvarez at least owns a low K rate, while Judge’s BABIP is in the .370s.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.295, 0.739 — Luis Arraez batting against Ty Madden.
- 0.304, 0.727 — Jose Iglesias batting against Brayan Bello.
- 0.292, 0.720 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Gavin Williams.
- 0.292, 0.713 — Yainer Diaz batting against Julian Aguiar.
- 0.314, 0.712 — Jose Miranda batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.284, 0.703 — Jose Altuve batting against Julian Aguiar.
- 0.278, 0.690 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Julian Aguiar.
- 0.269, 0.690 — Amed Rosario batting against Justin Verlander.
- 0.268, 0.685 — Jarren Duran batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.265, 0.683 — Freddy Fermin batting against Gavin Williams.
- 0.263, 0.683 — Jackson Merrill batting against Ty Madden.
Alvarez stays on this list, while Judge drops off. Iglesias and Arraez tie for the consensus top pick, making them the double down choice. Arraez tends to be platooned. Ty Madden is right handed, but the Tigers have not named an official starter yet.
Get your picks in early, as there are a number of early starts on this holiday.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Still alive in this contest. Looking forward to another post tomorrow.