For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.347 — Luis Arraez batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.317 — Jackson Merrill batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.307 — Donovan Solano batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.301 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.299 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.292 — Harold Ramirez batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.292 — Manny Machado batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.292 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.290 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.288 — Elias Diaz batting against Casey Mize.
It looks like a good day for the Padres as Mize takes the mound. Arraez owns consecutive two-hit games.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.347, 0.766 — Luis Arraez batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.317, 0.721 — Jackson Merrill batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.299, 0.709 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.292, 0.708 — Harold Ramirez batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.307, 0.705 — Donovan Solano batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.301, 0.703 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.271, 0.702 — Yainer Diaz batting against Rhett Lowder.
- 0.280, 0.701 — Amed Rosario batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.285, 0.691 — Michael Harris II batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.263, 0.690 — Jose Altuve batting against Rhett Lowder.
Merrill, in his rookie season, turned out to be a high BA, low OBA player. His strikeout rate is low for the ERA, but high compared to Arraez. Still, he’s a good double down choice today as the two systems agree at the top.
Note there are a number of afternoon games today, and no real late games as the West coast sees two 5 PM PDT contests. Get your picks in early!