The White Sox beat the Red Sox 7-2 Sunday afternoon, taking advantage of Boston reliever Zack Kelly, charged with five runs late in the game. This afternoon, the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins stand at:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.299 | 0.861 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.868 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.352 | 0.722 |
Chicago only needs six more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.299 | 0.538 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.549 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.352 | 0.348 |
So after Sunday’s win they are somewhere between a 1 in 3 to even to relieve the Athletics of their dismal record. Finishing worse than the 1962 Mets, however, is still a very strong possibility.