For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.326 — Luis Arraez batting against George Kirby.
- 0.304 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.302 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Marcus Stroman.
- 0.290 — Jackson Merrill batting against George Kirby.
- 0.289 — Marcell Ozuna batting against MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.285 — Jose Miranda batting against Griffin Canning.
- 0.284 — Steven Kwan batting against Jonathan Cannon.
- 0.282 — Amed Rosario batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.281 — Donovan Solano batting against George Kirby.
- 0.276 — Freddy Fermin batting against Marcus Stroman.
- 0.276 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Keider Montero.
It’s the usual group at the top. Note that Lawrence Butler of Oakland currently holds an 18 game streak.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.326, 0.757 — Luis Arraez batting against George Kirby.
- 0.304, 0.726 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.302, 0.722 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Marcus Stroman.
- 0.282, 0.701 — Amed Rosario batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.290, 0.700 — Jackson Merrill batting against George Kirby.
- 0.285, 0.695 — Jose Miranda batting against Griffin Canning.
- 0.289, 0.693 — Marcell Ozuna batting against MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.274, 0.692 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against David Peterson.
- 0.274, 0.688 — Jarren Duran batting against Albert Suarez.
- 0.276, 0.687 — Freddy Fermin batting against Marcus Stroman.
The two systems agree on the top three, with Arraez and Iglesias the double down picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!