The White Sox beat the Athletics 7-6 on Saturday. It was a dramatic win as Chicago twice blew three run leads, the second time in the top of the ninth inning. Andew Benintendi, three for five in the game, hit a walk off home run for the win.
Chicago needs to win seven more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.297 | 0.941 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.942 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.355 | 0.862 |
Chicago only needs five more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.297 | 0.663 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.666 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.355 | 0.485 |
They are almost certain to finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and only the most generous probability based on their bad luck gives then an even chance than of finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics. In fact they are now favorites in five of the six scenarios to be the worst team of the modern era. My guess would be a 37-125 finish.