The White Sox beat the Angels 8-4 on Monday. It is the first time Chicago won three games in a row since June 29th.
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.308 | 0.772 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.798 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.357 | 0.650 |
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.308 | 0.293 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.323 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.357 | 0.187 |
This morning the probabilities still point to a finish worse than the 1962 Mets, but it’s no longer a foregone conclusion. The three wins in a row make finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics much less likely, the White Sox now favored to beat that mark. It’s going to be close, but they have an very good chance of finishing better than the A’s and worse than the Mets.