The Angels beat the White Sox 5-0 on Tuesday as Chicago continues to do poorly in games in which they don’t score a run. They lead the majors in times shut out at 19. (Their cross town rivals, the Cubs, are tied for the NL lead with 15.)

Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:

Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:

This morning’s the probabilities still point to a finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and it’s back to a near certainty. Their Pythagorean winning percentage gives them a one in four chance of 41 wins, and as we’ve seen with Beat the Streak that is no sure thing. Finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics is less likely, the White Sox now favored to beat that mark. It’s going to be close, but they have an very good chance of finishing better than the A’s and worse than the Mets.