For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.348 — Luis Arraez batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.313 — Jackson Merrill batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.307 — Jose Iglesias batting against Ranger Suarez.
- 0.305 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.300 — Donovan Solano batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.299 — Jose Ramirez batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.295 — Manny Machado batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.294 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Walker Buehler.
- 0.293 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Walker Buehler.
- 0.290 — Will Brennan batting against Miles Mikolas.
Arraez recorded six hits in eleven at bats against Flexen with no strikeouts.
The NN produced this list of players with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.348, 0.771 — Luis Arraez batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.307, 0.742 — Jose Iglesias batting against Ranger Suarez.
- 0.313, 0.721 — Jackson Merrill batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.288, 0.710 — Yainer Diaz batting against Reid Detmers.
- 0.305, 0.703 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.259, 0.701 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Landen Roupp.
- 0.282, 0.701 — Jose Altuve batting against Reid Detmers.
- 0.300, 0.699 — Donovan Solano batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.295, 0.692 — Manny Machado batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.299, 0.691 — Jose Ramirez batting against Miles Mikolas.
With Francisco Lindor out, the Mets bat Iglesias at the top of the lineup, which gives him the opportunity for more plate appearances in the game. With Arraez the unanimous top pick with a very high probability of a hit, you can flip a coin on Iglesias or Merrill for the double down.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!