The White Sox played another close extra-inning game of Friday, with the Padres winning 3-2. Their 118th loss breaks the tie with the 1916 Athletics for third place for most losses in the modern era. The Tigers lost 119 games in 2003, and the Mets lost 120 games in 1962. Here I’m watching the winning percentage record, but Chicago can set the loss record without setting the percentage record. Note that two close losses in two games move them eight game below their Pythagorean projection.
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.302 | 0.941 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.945 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.358 | 0.885 |
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.302 | 0.547 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.562 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.358 | 0.409 |
All probabilities for the 40-122 or worse finish point to a near certainty of knocking the 1962 Mets to second place for the expansion era. Finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics is less likely, but two of the three estimates of the team’s intrinsic winning percentage make that finish more likely than not. Even the most generous intrinsic winning percentage puts the odds at 2 in 5.