For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.311 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Darren McCaughan.
- 0.304 — Luis Arraez batting against Sean Burke.
- 0.302 — Jarren Duran batting against Zebby Matthews.
- 0.300 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Zebby Matthews.
- 0.299 — William Contreras batting against Jordan Montgomery.
- 0.297 — Yainer Diaz batting against Griffin Canning.
- 0.297 — Michael Harris II batting against Darren McCaughan.
- 0.297 — Jackson Chourio batting against Jordan Montgomery.
- 0.295 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.295 — Mookie Betts batting against Antonio Senzatela.
Hitters like Ozuna, who both walk a lot strike out a lot, usually don’t make this list. He is posting a .370 BABIP this year, so he does a lot of damage when he puts the bat on the ball. Pair him against a pitcher with a low K rate and a high BABIP of his own, and log5 sees Ozuna crushing him.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.304, 0.747 — Luis Arraez batting against Sean Burke.
- 0.297, 0.718 — Yainer Diaz batting against Griffin Canning.
- 0.259, 0.718 — Jose Iglesias batting against Zack Wheeler.
- 0.289, 0.707 — Jose Altuve batting against Griffin Canning.
- 0.311, 0.706 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Darren McCaughan.
- 0.292, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.295, 0.702 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.295, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.302, 0.702 — Jarren Duran batting against Zebby Matthews.
- 0.300, 0.701 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Zebby Matthews.
A similar list in a different order. Ozuna looks less good on a three-year span, and the NN sees that as the most important element for evaluating a batter. Arraez tops the list as the consensus top pick, with Ozuna as the double down choice. Iglesias owns a 3 for 8 against Wheeler with no strike outs in their careers, and the Mets savior owns a fifteen game hit streak.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!