The Padres beat the White Sox 6-2 on Saturday. Chicago suffered their 119th loss, tying them with the 2023 Tigers for the second most losses in the modern era. The Mets lost 120 games in 1962. Here I’m watching the winning percentage record, but Chicago can set the loss record without setting the percentage record. Note that the Tigers were 38-118 then won five of their last six games to avoid both records.
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.300 | 0.971 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.973 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.355 | 0.941 |
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.300 | 0.647 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.656 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.355 | 0.521 |
All probabilities now point to the White Sox winding up being the worst team of the 125 seasons of modern baseball. Frankly, I don’t put much stock in the Pythagorean winning percentage due to the team unloading players at the trade deadline. They may be +8 overall, but I suspect the current roster is very close to replacement level.
Their only hope is that they get to host the Angels for three games. They may need to sweep, as the Padres and Tigers are still in playoff contention. A sweep of the Angels only has them avoid the 1916 A’s winning percentage.