For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.312 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Mitchell Parker.
- 0.308 — Jose Iglesias batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.291 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Brayan Bello.
- 0.281 — Luis Arraez batting against Landon Knack.
- 0.280 — Randal Grichuk batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.280 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.279 — Freddy Fermin batting against Mitchell Parker.
- 0.278 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.277 — Kevin Newman batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.275 — William Contreras batting against Bailey Falter.
Iglesias owns a sixteen game hit streak, the longest current streak i the majors.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.308, 0.747 — Jose Iglesias batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.281, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting against Landon Knack.
- 0.312, 0.730 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Mitchell Parker.
- 0.291, 0.705 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Brayan Bello.
- 0.255, 0.696 — Yainer Diaz batting against Logan Gilbert.
- 0.279, 0.686 — Freddy Fermin batting against Mitchell Parker.
- 0.258, 0.685 — Trea Turner batting against Justin Steele.
- 0.280, 0.684 — Randal Grichuk batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.278, 0.683 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.250, 0.683 — Jackson Merrill batting against Landon Knack.
Iglesias and Witt stand as the consensus double down choices.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!