For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.305 — Jose Iglesias batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.288 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.265 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.261 — Michael Harris II batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.254 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.251 — Michael Harris II batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.246 — Gio Urshela batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.244 — Ronald Acuna batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.241 — Austin Riley batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.240 — Starling Marte batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.238 — Ozzie Albies batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.237 — Francisco Lindor batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.236 — Gio Urshela batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.235 — Ronald Acuna batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.234 — Mark Vientos batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.232 — Austin Riley batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.229 — Ramon Laureano batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.229 — Luisangel Acuna batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.228 — Ozzie Albies batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.227 — David Fletcher batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.226 — Chadwick Tromp batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.225 — Starling Marte batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.224 — Jeff McNeil batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.224 — Matt Olson batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.223 — Tyrone Taylor batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.223 — Eli White batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.222 — Francisco Lindor batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.221 — J.P. Martinez batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.220 — Ramon Laureano batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.219 — Mark Vientos batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.218 — Travis D’Arnaud batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.218 — David Fletcher batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.217 — Harrison Bader batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.217 — Chadwick Tromp batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.215 — Matt Olson batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.215 — Luisangel Acuna batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.214 — Whit Merrifield batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.214 — Joey Wendle batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.213 — Eli White batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.213 — Jarred Kelenic batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.213 — J.D. Martinez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.213 — Orlando Arcia batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.212 — Luis Torrens batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.212 — J.P. Martinez batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.211 — Jorge Soler batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.211 — Pablo Reyes batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.210 — Jeff McNeil batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.210 — Travis D’Arnaud batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.209 — Luke Williams batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.209 — Tyrone Taylor batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.209 — Ignacio Alvarez batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.208 — Brian Anderson batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.208 — Eddy Alvarez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.206 — Whit Merrifield batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.206 — Pete Alonso batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.205 — Francisco Alvarez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.205 — Jesse Winker batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.205 — Jarred Kelenic batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.205 — Orlando Arcia batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.203 — Harrison Bader batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.202 — Jorge Soler batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.201 — Brandon Nimmo batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.201 — Luke Williams batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.200 — Ignacio Alvarez batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.200 — Joey Wendle batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.200 — J.D. Martinez batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.199 — Brett Baty batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.199 — Brian Anderson batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.199 — Luis Torrens batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.197 — Pablo Reyes batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.194 — Eddy Alvarez batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.193 — Pete Alonso batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.192 — Francisco Alvarez batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.192 — Jesse Winker batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.190 — Sean Murphy batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.188 — Brandon Nimmo batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.186 — Brett Baty batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.186 — Eddie Rosario batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.184 — Omar Narvaez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.183 — Adam Duvall batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.182 — Sean Murphy batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.179 — Eddie Rosario batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.176 — Cavan Biggio batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.176 — Zack Short batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.175 — Adam Duvall batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.172 — Omar Narvaez batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.169 — Cavan Biggio batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.168 — Zack Short batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.164 — D.J. Stewart batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.153 — D.J. Stewart batting against Chris Sale.
The list is short enough that I just gave you everyone. There are people listed not on the roster, but you’ll figure that out. 🙂
The NN produced this list of batters and their probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.305, 0.747 — Jose Iglesias batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.288, 0.738 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.261, 0.678 — Michael Harris II batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.265, 0.677 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.251, 0.674 — Michael Harris II batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.254, 0.672 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.244, 0.660 — Ronald Acuna batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.235, 0.656 — Ronald Acuna batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.246, 0.654 — Gio Urshela batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.236, 0.649 — Gio Urshela batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.240, 0.645 — Starling Marte batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.241, 0.644 — Austin Riley batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.232, 0.639 — Austin Riley batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.238, 0.638 — Ozzie Albies batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.237, 0.637 — Francisco Lindor batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.225, 0.634 — Starling Marte batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.228, 0.633 — Ozzie Albies batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.234, 0.630 — Mark Vientos batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.222, 0.626 — Francisco Lindor batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.224, 0.625 — Jeff McNeil batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.229, 0.621 — Luisangel Acuna batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.219, 0.619 — Mark Vientos batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.227, 0.618 — David Fletcher batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.210, 0.614 — Jeff McNeil batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.223, 0.613 — Tyrone Taylor batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.218, 0.613 — David Fletcher batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.229, 0.612 — Ramon Laureano batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.226, 0.612 — Chadwick Tromp batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.224, 0.612 — Matt Olson batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.215, 0.609 — Luisangel Acuna batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.220, 0.608 — Ramon Laureano batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.217, 0.607 — Chadwick Tromp batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.215, 0.607 — Matt Olson batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.221, 0.604 — J.P. Martinez batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.217, 0.604 — Harrison Bader batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.223, 0.604 — Eli White batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.213, 0.603 — J.D. Martinez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.214, 0.603 — Whit Merrifield batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.218, 0.602 — Travis D’Arnaud batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.209, 0.602 — Tyrone Taylor batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.212, 0.599 — J.P. Martinez batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.213, 0.599 — Eli White batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.211, 0.598 — Pablo Reyes batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.206, 0.598 — Whit Merrifield batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.210, 0.598 — Travis D’Arnaud batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.214, 0.596 — Joey Wendle batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.213, 0.595 — Orlando Arcia batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.212, 0.595 — Luis Torrens batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.203, 0.592 — Harrison Bader batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.200, 0.592 — J.D. Martinez batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.205, 0.591 — Orlando Arcia batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.213, 0.590 — Jarred Kelenic batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.211, 0.587 — Jorge Soler batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.197, 0.587 — Pablo Reyes batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.209, 0.587 — Ignacio Alvarez batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.208, 0.586 — Eddy Alvarez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.205, 0.586 — Jarred Kelenic batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.200, 0.585 — Joey Wendle batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.199, 0.583 — Luis Torrens batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.209, 0.583 — Luke Williams batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.202, 0.582 — Jorge Soler batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.200, 0.582 — Ignacio Alvarez batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.206, 0.581 — Pete Alonso batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.201, 0.581 — Brandon Nimmo batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.201, 0.578 — Luke Williams batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.205, 0.577 — Francisco Alvarez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.208, 0.575 — Brian Anderson batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.205, 0.575 — Jesse Winker batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.194, 0.574 — Eddy Alvarez batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.199, 0.571 — Brian Anderson batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.193, 0.570 — Pete Alonso batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.188, 0.570 — Brandon Nimmo batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.199, 0.567 — Brett Baty batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.192, 0.565 — Francisco Alvarez batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.192, 0.564 — Jesse Winker batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.190, 0.557 — Sean Murphy batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.186, 0.555 — Brett Baty batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.186, 0.553 — Eddie Rosario batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.182, 0.552 — Sean Murphy batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.179, 0.548 — Eddie Rosario batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.183, 0.542 — Adam Duvall batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.184, 0.538 — Omar Narvaez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.175, 0.537 — Adam Duvall batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.176, 0.528 — Cavan Biggio batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.172, 0.526 — Omar Narvaez batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.176, 0.525 — Zack Short batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.169, 0.523 — Cavan Biggio batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.168, 0.520 — Zack Short batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.164, 0.517 — D.J. Stewart batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.153, 0.506 — D.J. Stewart batting against Chris Sale.
Pick Iglesias in game one, although at the moment, Beat the Streak is not allowing a selection. Looks like it’s waiting for the lineups.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!