The Braves led the NL in run prevention in 2024, allowing just 3.74 runs per game. The Padres were no slouches, coming in third at 4.13 runs per game. A big reason for the Braves being at the top was Chris Sale, likely to win the NL Cy Young Award. Sale, however, is not expected to start in this series:

Atlanta Braves left-hander Chris Sale was scratched from his scheduled start in the second game of Monday’s doubleheader against the New York Mets on account of back spasms. The Braves won that game by a 3-0 margin to clinch a playoff berth. Unfortunately for the Braves, it appears that Sale’s unavailability will extend into October.

Manager Brian Snitker told reporters after the game that he does not expect Sale to be an option to pitch during Atlanta’s Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres.

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Due to the way the season ended, and an ace’s injury, a strength of the Braves suddenly looks like a weakness.

On top of that, the Padres are the better offensive team, with 4.69 runs score per game to the Braves 4.34.

Like the Mets and Brewers, this is going to be a very tough game one for the Braves to win, especially since they needed to play their top hitters in both of Monday’s game. With the rotation stretched thin and the Padres rested and at home, this looks like an easy win for San Diego.