Another League Division Series, another division rivalry as the New York Mets take on the Philadelphia Phillies in a battle of NL East teams. The Phillies cruised to the NL East title, taking over first place on May 3rd after a 13-3 run and never relinquishing the top slot. The Mets caught fire later, going 65-38 from June 3rd on, the best record in the majors during that time frame:
The Phillies did post the better offense in 2024, but not that much better:
| 2024 Batting (NL Ranks) | Mets | Phillies |
| Runs per Game | 4.74 (5th) | 4.84 (3rd) |
| Batting Average | .246 (7th) | .257 (4th) |
| On-Base Average | .319 (6th) | .325 (4th) |
| Slugging Percentage | .415 (5th) | .425 (3rd) |
| Home Runs | 207 (4th) | 198 (5th) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 82.8 (5th) | 83.1 (4th) |
| BABIP | .291 (9th) | .306 (2nd) |
Given their BABIP, the trick to stropping the Phillies batters is to get them to strikeout That’s tough as Philadelphia’s K rate was fairly low. Note that the Mets did out-homer the Phillies this season, and home runs can make a difference in a tight playoff series.
An offensive matchup to watch comes from the top of the order where Francisco Lindor and Kyle Schwarber bring power to the table setter slot. Lindor produced a .303/.374/.522 slash line batting first. That included 26 homers. Schwarber spent more of the season #1, batting .248/.366/.486 with 38 home runs.
The pitching and defense show bigger gaps:
| 2024 Pitching and Defense (NL Ranks) | Mets | Phillies |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 4.30 (8th) | 4.14 (5th) |
| Earned Run Average | 3.96 (7th) | 3.85 (4th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.1 (2nd) | 8.9 (5th) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.7 (15th) | 2.8 (1st) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 22.9 (3rd) | 25.1 (9th) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .704 (4th) | .692 (8th) |
One matchup to watch here is the Phillies high BABIP versus the Mets high defensive efficiency (DER can be thought of as BABIP from the fielder’s perspective). Will the Phillies hitters find the holes, or will the Mets defense close the gaps?
Home runs would seem to favor the Mets here where they both hit more on offense and are better stopping them on defense. In fact, given the Mets ability to limit hits and home runs, one would think New York would allow fewer runs than Philadelphia. Walks however, were a major problem for the Mets staff, making the hits and home runs they do allow more likely to come with someone on base.
The Phillies won the season series 7-6, and that seems about right given the stats above. I tend to like teams with home run advantages in the post season. Runs tend to be scarce, so if a team is better able to score without depending on long offensive sequences, they are more likely to win low scoring games. I’m going to pick the Mets by a hair, with a 51% chance of winning the five-game series.