The Royals and Yankees begin the only intra-divisional series of the of the 2024 League Division Series (LDS) round. The Yankees and Royals faced off four times in five season from 1976 to 1980. At the time, these were five-game League Championship Series. The Yankees won three of the four, and they produced three memorable moments.
The first is Chris Chambliss hitting the second series ending home run in MLB history:
The Yankees held a 6-3 lead going into the eighth inning, and the game was running long. My mother “encouraged” me to go bed because I had school the next day, and the Yankees were going to win. I went to bed. The next morning I woke up to see I had missed this. It was the last time my mom would make me go to bed.
The second is the Yankees come back in 1977, from both a 2-1 deficit in the series and a 3-1 deficit in game five going into the eight inning. Reggie Jackson was in Billy Martin‘s doghouse and did not start the game. At the time I thought this wasn’t too bad a move, because Martin could save Jackson for a clutch situation. In the eighth inning, he pinch hit and drove in a run to cut the lead to 3-2. Mickey Rivers singles in the tying run in the nine inning off Larry Gura, then Mark Littell, who allowed the above home run, allows two inherited runners to score for a 5-3 Yankees lead.
In the bottom of the ninth, with a man on first and one out, Freddy Patek the seasonal age 32 veteran comes to the plate. He was seven for 17 with three doubles and a triple in the series, and 14 for 35 in 1976 and 1977 combined. Then this happened:
With the double play and the crowd shocked into silence, this is very similar to the end of the Mets-Brewers Wild Card Round series the other day.
Finally, in 1980, game three produced a face off between George Brett and Goose Gossage. The Royals won the first two games of the series. The Yankees led 2-1 at home in the seventh inning after taking the lead in the bottom of the sixth. When Tommy John got in trouble in the sixth inning, Gossage came in for the multi-inning save. Gossage gave up an infield single to put the go-ahead run on base, then faced Brett:
This time it was the Royals that silenced the Yankees crowd.
Who might be the hero this season?
The offensive side of the equation favors the Yankees:
| 2024 Batting (AL Ranks) | Royals | Yankees |
| Runs per Game | 4.54 (6th) | 5.03 (1st) |
| Batting Average | .248 (4th) | .248 (4th) |
| On-Base Average | .306 (9th) | .333 (1st) |
| Slugging Percentage | .403 (6th) | .429 (2nd) |
| Home Runs | 170 (10th) | 237 (1st) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 81.2 (3rd) | 77.2 (8th) |
| BABIP | .283 (9th) | .283 (9th) |
Note that the Yankees and Royals produced the same BABIP and the same batting average. They get to the BA from the BABIP in different ways, however. Neither team strikes out a lot, but the Royals offense produced the fewest Ks in the AL. The Yankees were ninth, with about 160 more strikeouts than KC. The Yankees hit 67 more home runs, which made up for the high K number.
This is a very good example of why it can be a mistake to judge teams by batting average. New York does a much better job of getting on base and hitting for power, which is why their offense stands half a run better.
Pitching and defense are a bit more even:
| 2024 Pitching and Defense (AL Ranks) | Royals | Yankees |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 3.98 (4th) | 4.12 (7th) |
| Earned Run Average | 3.76 (6th) | 3.74 (4th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.4 (11th) | 9.0 (3rd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.0 (5th) | 3.3 (9th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 20.4 (1st) | 27.3 (8th) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .696 (11th) | .703 (9th) |
This comparison presents a lot to unpack The Royals and Yankees own nearly identical ERAs, with a slight edge to the Yankees, but the Royals own a bigger edge in actual runs allowed per game. The difference between RA and ERA for the Royals is 0.22 runs, for the Yankees, 0.38 runs. This is a bit surprising, since the Yankees are better at turning balls in play into outs, as evidenced the defensive efficiency (DER). The upshot is that errors by the Yankees fielders turned into runs more often than for the Royals (and errors are part of DER).
Which leads us to the Royals great strength and the Yankees great weakness, home runs allowed. Home runs are not part of DER, and the Yankees get a bit creamed when the pitchers don’t use their fielders. While the the staff K rate is good, the walk and home run rates are not. So errors hurt this team. The Royals, on the other hand, stop home runs. This may be a slight home field effect, but KC was still very good on the road.
So it comes down to the best home run hitting team versus the best home run prevention team. Can the Royals keep Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in the park? KC did do a good job of limiting the power of the big two during the regular season.
It’s another tough call. The Yankees offense does a lot of things well, and the Yankees have up to three games to take advantage of their friendlier home run home park. I give the Yankees a 52% chance of winning this series.