Fox Sports must be very happy as they potentially could broadcast two New York against Los Angeles series in a row. The National League Championship Series (NLCS) features the wild card Mets taking on the NL West champion Dodgers, the first game taking place Sunday night. The Mets eliminated two other division champions, the Brewers and the Phillies, while the Dodgers had to come back from a 1-2 deficit in the NLDS to defeat the Padres in five games.
Here is a comparison of the team offenses:
| 2024 Batting (NL Ranks) | Mets | Dodgers |
| Runs per Game | 4.74 (5th) | 5.20 (2nd) |
| Batting Average | .246 (7th) | .258 (3rd) |
| On-Base Average | .319 (6th) | .335 (2nd) |
| Slugging Percentage | .415 (5th) | .446 (1st) |
| Home Runs | 207 (4th) | 233 (1st) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 82.8 (5th) | 85.5 (1st) |
| BABIP | .291 (9th) | .297 (6th) |
The Dodger simply played better in every aspect of offense than the Mets over the course of the season. The Mets do bring hot hitters into the series, but the Padres hitters were hot until the Dodgers shutout them down. Small sample sizes can switch from hot to cold quickly.
The next table compares the two teams on pitching and defense:
| 2024 Batting (NL Ranks) | Mets | Dodgers |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 4.30 (8th) | 4.23 (6th) |
| Earned Run Average | 3.96 (7th) | 3.90 (6th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.1 (2nd) | 8.7 (6th) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.7 (15th) | 3.1 (8th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 22.9 (3rd) | 27.4 (13th) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .704 (4th) | .710 (1st) |
Here the two sides are much closer. The Dodgers do a slightly better job of preventing runs. The Mets pitchers strike out more batters, someone neutralizing the Dodgers batters advantage in BABIP. The Mets pitchers walk a lot more batters, and the Dodgers batters are willing to take a walk.
The Mets strength in pitching lies in preventing home runs. That goes right at a big strength of the Dodgers offense, hitting home runs. Going the other way, the Dodgers pitchers would in general do a poor job of neutralizing the Mets bats when it comes to the long ball. As we’ve seen in the playoffs, when runs are scarce, home runs win games.
The Dodgers advantage on offense and home field advantage should be enough to give them a win in the series, but it is by no means a slam dunk. In a low scoring the Mets can generate enough power to win close games. So I give a very slight edge to Los Angeles, with a 52% chance of advancing to the World Series.