Return with me to the World Series of my youth, the Yankees and Dodgers going head to head. They met three times between 1977 and 1981, the Yankees taking two of three. The 2024 version offers two great teams, although neither is perfect. Let’s start with a comparison of the offenses:
| 2024 Batting (League Ranks) | Yankees (AL) | Dodgers (NL) |
| Runs per Game | 5.03 (1st) | 5.20 (2nd) |
| Batting Average | .248 (4th) | .258 (3rd) |
| On-Base Average | .333 (1st) | .335 (2nd) |
| Slugging Percentage | .429 (2nd) | .446 (1st) |
| Home Runs | 237 (1st) | 233 (1st) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 77.2 (8th) | 85.5 (1st) |
| BABIP | .283 (9th) | .297 (6th) |
The Dodgers scored more runs than the Yankees in the regular season, but ranked lower relative to their league. The NL outscored the AL 4.51 R/G to 4.27 R/G. Both teams struck out about the same number of times, so the Dodgers higher BA is a result of their higher BABIP. They did a much better job of having their balls in play find holes. The Yankees made up for that somewhat with walks, as the Dodgers ten point BA advantage falls to two points when comparing OBP. While the Yankees won the home run race, the Dodgers knocked out many more doubles and triples to finish with a better slugging percentage as well.
Both lineups boast two superstar bats near the top with the Yankees batting Juan Soto and Aaron Judge second and third, the Dodgers with Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts first and second. Note that Soto, Ohtani, and Betts lived up to expectations so far in the 2024 post-season, while Judge has only collected five hits. It’s all small sample sizes, and any of those four might turn around in this series.
Both teams did receive help from beyond their stars.
I hope someone brings up stolen bases in the Judge Ohtani comparison. While Judge does not run much, he is 35 for 40 over the last four seasons, so he picks his spots well.
Here are the two teams compared on pitching and defense:
| 2024 Pitching and Defense (League Ranks) | Yankees (AL) | Dodgers (NL) |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 4.12 (7th) | 4.23 (6th) |
| Earned Run Average | 3.74 (4th) | 3.90 (6th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.0 (3rd) | 8.7 (6th) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.3 (9th) | 3.1 (8th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 27.3 (8th) | 27.4 (13th) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .703 (9th) | .710 (1st) |
The Yankees averages tend to be better here, but again, they are pitching in a lower scoring league. Defense hurt New York, as the team ERA is ranked much higher than their runs allowed per game. The Dodgers were at the top of the NL in turning batted balls into outs while the Yankees were in the second division. It would behoove the Yankees to put their best defensive team on the field. I thought Anthony Rizzo‘s return would help, but he looked rusty in the field. Maybe a few off days to practice will get him closer to normal.
One interesting aspect of the league rankings comes in home runs per 200 IP. The Yankees are barely better than the Dodgers, but rank much higher in the AL than the Dodgers do in the NL. The biggest advantage for the Yankees on the pitching side would be their higher K rate, which could help blunt the Dodgers higher BABIP.
The other strength for New York might be their three quality starters. Might the Yankees use Gerrit Cole in games one, four, and seven? Due to his early season injury, he hasn’t pitched that much. That way, the team could avoid a bullpen game, when the Dodgers might need two.
The Dodgers bullpen games only worked once, in the shutout against the Padres. They did win another of them, but that was due to the offense scoring a ton of runs. I suspect most teams would lose a bullpen game that allowed five runs.
This is a tough call. The Dodgers offense owns a bigger gap over the Yankees than the Yankees do on the pitching side. Adding that to home field advantage gives the Dodgers the edge. If it winds up that Stanton, Soto, and Judge are hitting on all cylinders, it could be a very different series. I am picking the Dodgers, but only with a 52% chance of becoming Word Champions.