Sometime you actually get to see luck in action. The story today in the Boston Globe is why Wakefield started last night, despite the fact that Tim pitched well. An inch made all the difference in making a good evening look bad:
Then came Blake’s fifth-inning homer. And with runners at the corners, Asdrubal Cabrera lined a curveball for a single off Wakefield’s glove for a 2-0 lead. If the pitcher hadn’t touched the ball, second baseman Dustin Pedroia was in position to start an inning-end double play.
“It’s a reaction play,” Wakefield said. “If I let it go, it’s a double play. If I catch it, it’s a double play. It’s one of those things where the breaks went their way in that inning. Unfortunately, I was taken out after two outs in the fifth.”
I thought Wakefield was tiring in the fifth, as his knuckle ball was hanging high that inning. But a lucky tick off a glove gave the Indians a chance for a seven run lead instead of ending the inning up 1-0. And to Cleveland’s credit, they took full advantage of the lucky break.
I am a firm believer that in a short series with evenly matched teams, it mostly comes down to breaks and a few plays here and there. As a Sox fan, I’m disappointed that they’re down 3-1, but it’s not because Tito started Wakefield over Beckett or that he started Drew over Kielty (an actual debate on Boston sportsradio yesterday), it’s because Lofton’s HR was inches over the wall, Pedroia just missed turning 2 in game 3 on a Hafner grounder, and the Wakefield and Youk miscues last night. Otherwise, yeah, Cleveland has played marginally better than Boston, but over 100 games, these teams would play to a 50-50 tie.
This was a reasonable example of “luck” going against the Red Sox – the ball off of Wakefield’s glove changed the game; that’s not quite a random event, but it’s close. (I wouldn’t count the foul pop-up as “lucky”, since Youkilis could [should?] have caught it cleanly; skill could have triumphed there, although it’s hard to tell.)
Cleveland has played a little better, and in particular, their bullpen has been solid, allowing them to maximize their slight play advantage. When the Red Sox had to pull Papelbon in Game 2, I immediately thought “The Indians are going to win this, because they’ve outlasted the good Sox relievers.”