September 15, 2009

Massive Tie Scenario

The Dodgers defeated the Pirates 6-1 with the bottom of the order, Blake, Martin and Hudson each collecting multiple hits, combining to go 7 for 10. The Dodgers bullpen is showing no sign of weakness, as they pitched three perfect inning to preserve the win.

The Marlins lost to the Cardinals 11-6, St. Louis scoring four in the first, four in the eighth and three in the middle. Matt Holliday doubled and drove in three, giving him 48 RBI in 47 games for the Cardinals.

The Giants kept their playoff hopes alive with a 9-1 win over the Rockies. Tim Lincecum returned in fine form, striking out 11 in seven innings. Eugenio Velez tripled and drove in four. He has five triples and four home runs on the season.

These results were not very good for the five-way massive tie scenario in the National League. The following outcomes result in a five-way tie with the highest winning percentage:

  • Dodgers 8-9
  • Phillies 12-8
  • Rockies 12-5
  • Giants 16-2
  • Marlins 18-0

The Marlins loss ties them with the Braves in the all freakin’ important loss column (AFILC), but bringing the Braves back in for a six way tie makes the things much less probable. Instead, I’m going to break the NL down into two separate scenarios. The first is a three-way tie for the NL West:

  • Dodgers 10-7
  • Rockies 14-3
  • Giants 18-0

The second is a four-way tie for the NL Wild Card:

  • Rockies 10-7
  • Giants 14-4
  • Marlins 16-2
  • Braves 17-2

The Braves and Marlins play three times, so it’s impossible for either to go undefeated or lose once and have the teams tied. Both these races provide more flexibility for a massive tie.

Both the Angels and Rangers lost, making a four way tie between the AL East and AL West less likely. The following outcomes result in a four-way tie with the highest winning percentage:

  • Yankees 5-12
  • Angels 12-7
  • Red Sox 14-6
  • Rangers 18-1

The above requires the Rangers to go 6-1 against the Angels, and the Red Sox to lose two out of three games to the Angels. The three way tie between the Angels, Red Sox and Rangers remains the most likely massive tie. With the Angels starting a three game series with the Red Sox, the Rangers need to win in order to gain on one or both.

Here are the outcomes for today’s games that should improve the chances of a massive tie:

  • The Blue Jays defeat the Yankees
  • Washington downs Philadelphia
  • Either the Angels or Red Sox win
  • The Braves defeat the Mets
  • Texas wins over Oakland
  • Florida downs St. Louis
  • The Pirates beat the Dodgers
  • San Francisco defeats Colorado

It’s tough for teams to gain on the Dodgers and Phillies when they’re playing the Pirates and Nationals.

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