This series continues with a look at the American League Wild Card, the Boston Red Sox.

Strengths

The Red Sox are a very sure-handed team in the field. Boston ranks 6th in the American League in ERA at 4.34, but second in runs allowed per game at 4.53. They’ve only allowed 41 unearned runs, tied with Texas for the 2nd fewest in the AL. Now, not making errors isn’t the be all and end all of defense, but combined with their low runs allowed, the fielders aren’t hurting their pitchers by giving the opposition extra outs.

Boston’s bullpen ranked third in ERA in the AL this season, and was not overused. They rank fourth in innings with 466.0. The front line starters on the Red Sox went deep enough in games to allow Francona to save his pen for those Brad Penny/John Smoltz short outings. Beckett averaged 6 2/3 innings per start, Lester 6 1/3. They keep opponents from getting too deep into the bullpen which helps the over pen ERA. Including Billy Wagner, the Red Sox boast four relievers with an ERA under 3.00, and Okajima is close at 3.39.

The offense ranks third in runs per game among American League teams. They get on base (3rd in OBP) and hit for power (2nd in slugging percentage). They also steal well, their 77% stolen base percentage ranking third.

The Red Sox hit well with runners in scoring position, .280 versus .269 overall. They can be an explosive team as the early series against the Yankees showed. They came back time after time. Even this week, they scored five runs in the eighth inning on Tuesday to lose a game 8-7.

I also believe Terry Francona does a very good job of putting the right players in to the right games. He’s in a situation where he has lots of parts on the infield, all with strengths and weaknesses. Terry gets playing time for Lowell, Youkillis, Kotchman, Martinez and Varitek while keeping everyone publicly happy.

Weaknesses

David Ortiz’s career took another step backward in 2009. He got off to a terrible start, but recovered somewhat in the second half. He no longer strikes fear into opposing pitchers, however. His strikeout percentage is the second highest of his career, the worst since 1998.

Shortstop is an offensive black hole for the team. That’s okay if the shortstop is a defensive wizard, but UZR has the team’s players at the position about league average. The position is a big net loss for the team in terms of net runs.

The Red Sox high OBP is a function of a very high walk rate. Compared to the Angels and Yankees, Boston does not hit as well. In a contest where neither pitcher walks a lot of batters, the Red Sox are at a disadvantage due to their lower batting average.

As the wild card team, Boston their road woes come into focus. They do not hit for power outside of Feway Park, as their slugging percentage drops 79 points. They hit home runs fine, but they don’t double. They’ve hit 193 doubles in 78 home games, just 137 in 81 road games, and that gap should increase over the weekend. They don’t pitch as well away either, with both their walks allowed and home runs going up away from Fenway. This was a team built very well for their home park, but their strengths don’t translate well to the road. They are 53-25 so far at home, just 39-42 on the road.

Conclusion

The Red Sox are a very strong team, but not quite as deep as the Yankees and Angels. A deep bullpen and great front line starters means that pitching weaknesses will likely be lessened in the post season. I suspect that the offense can be stopped by low walk pitchers however.