Edward Cossette at Bambino’s Curse is counting his chickens. He links to the Boston Dirt Dogs, who say the deal is done.
(Dirt Dogs, we all love your site, but how about putting permalinks on your articles so 10 years from now people can easily see how right or wrong you were? If Peter Gammons says a trade is going to happen and it doesn’t, it’s there on the internet for all the world to see forever. You guys look pretty internet savvy, you should be able to figure this out!)
I’ll believe it when I see the press conference.
I know that Boston will now be getting the superstar they’ve been wanting, but how much BETTER does this make the Sox? I guess it depends on who they get in the Nomar trade, but they’re not going to be getting the talent equivalent of Nomar back, I’m sure.
So I ask again, how much better does this actually make the Sox? How many more wins will they have due to the ARod and Nomar trades?
The Skinny From Red Sox Nation
Boston Dirt Dogs is reporting that the Alex Rodriguez for Manny Ramirez trade is a done deal, and that the
I think this comment gets at the heart of why some people don’t like this deal. I don’t think it really improves the Red Sox that much this year. But they do trade a superstar for a younger, slightly better superstar, so they are going to stay good longer with A-Rod than they are with Manny. Plus, you get the added bonus of attraction of A-Rod going for the HR record in a Boston uniform.
The WS breakdown is as follows:
ARod – 32 WS
Nomar – 25 WS
Manny Ramirez – 28 WS
So, by getting Arod and dropping the other 2, the BoSox are losing 21 WS. Now, you of course have to factor in whomever they get in return for Nomar, but it needs to be someone (or more than one) with a 21 WS to get back to where they were before the deal.
Texas will be saving some approx 81 million over the next few years, and that’s if the BoSox don’t agree to picking up some of Manny’s contracts which has been reported in rumors that they may. They (Boston) need to be getting someone of importance for Nomar if this deal goes down imho.
It doesn’t make too much sense to me overall, unless the third party Nomar trade has some sweet deal lurking behind it. Last rumor (Fox) I heard is that he would be going “most likely” to LA.
The Red Sox really don’t feel they can sign Nomar. That’s why this deal starts to make a little sense. Nomar, by all reports, still thinks he can get 15 million annually. Judging by the rediculous contract Baltimore gave to Tejada, he may be right. But the Red Sox cannot give Nomar 15 and Manny 20 ($35 million total). Instead They’ll pay $25 for A-Rod and far less than $10 million for Manny’s replacement. They’ll free up some cash to Re-Sign one of Veritek, Lowe, and Nixon in this deal.
The Old Core of Manny, Pedro, and Nomar was Dan Duquette’s. The Sox appear to be moving forward with a new core centered around Rodriguez and including some of Veritek, Nixon and Lowe.
from what i have heard and seen places is that nomar would go to l.a. in exchange for odalis perez, but i could be wrong. that has been the most talked about poosibility, but could be wrong
Odalis Perez has 6 Win Shares, but of course we’d have to factor in whoever the Sox sign to play OF to replace Manny. Besides Juan Gonzalez (10 WS, but injured for 1/2 the season), there doesn’t seem to be any outfield free agents out there that have the potential for 15-20 Win Shares. Have I missed someone? Well, there is Burnitz (12 WS) (Of course I’m excluding Vlad and Shef, since Shef and the Yanks seems to be a done deal and the Sox won’t pay for Vlad.) Then again, there are OFs on the trading block, like Jacque Jones (14 WS), Magglio (23 WS, but with a big contract that the Sox probably can’t absorb) and Hidalgo (20 WS, but same problem as Magglio).
I’ve talked to Dave in emails and just have to say that I hate this trade…
Texas gets Manny
LA gets Nomar
Boston gets A-Rod and O. Perez who they will then send off to another team for the outfielder to replace Manny. What I don’t get is why not sign Nomar to the $15 million? Its not like the Sox need to free up payroll. You take Mueller and move him to 2nd and play Youkillis at 3rd and save a little money cause you don’t need to sign a 2nd basemen. You don’t trade two superstars for one superstar and a medicore leftfielder. If they do this, I am going to go crazy.
Nomar & his agent (Tellum) already rejected a 4 year 60 million dollar deal in spring training. Even the reserved John Henry has expressed his frustration over Arn Tellum’s refusal to accept the correction in the market (“He seems to believe it is the winter of 2000”). Furthermore, I don’t think it is fair to look at the Tejada contract as setting the market, everyone knows Baltimore overpaid, they are desperate for free agents. I believe they doubled Seattle’s offer in years & tripled it in overall value.
Nomar is simply not worth $15-17 million per in this marketplace. I also don’t think Theo is comforted by the fact that Nomar’s offensive productivity has been steadily decreasing (OPS+ between ’98-’03: 142, 152, 158, 114 (limited time), 132, 121) Not a good trend.
A-rod’s contract is a much better value than Manny’s deal when you factor in the position they play, defense & the fact that A-Rod should age better. Moreover, I don’t think the Sox intend to replace Manny with a stiff in LF. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Huff or Edmonds.
BP’s RARP
Manny 70.7
Nomar 55.1
A-Rod 79.1
Huff? 50.8
Edmonds? 53.2
This is the one of the main differences between the Yankees and Red Sox right now – the Red Sox are planning for the future and the Yankees are panicking. The still-not-official trade is probably a wash this year (remember, coupled with the other moves, this team is better on paper than last year’s, provided the inevitable outfield addition) but it helps a lot in the next few seasons. Sure it hurts to lose Manny but his offense is replaced by A-Rod, and it’s a lot easier to get a outfielder with a big bat than a shortstop. A *lot* easier. Garciaparra was gone after this year anyway, as many people have pointed out. And he may never be the same player he was in 2001, though don’t get me wrong he is still an elite SS regardless.
These aren’t your daddy’s Red Sox – these guys (new mgmt.) are some of the best in the game and that, as much as 3 seasons with no ring, is why Steinbrenner is having a heart attack these days.
(Unrelated note: I want to be the first one to predict that Mark Bellhorn will have a .350+ obp with a respectable number of doubles and homers if he gets >300 ABs this year. Not that I like the Red Sox or anything.)
The only way I don’t like this deal is if the Sox eat a substantial amount of Manny’s contract. While he may have his shortcomings, he is one of the best hitters in the game. Eating $5 mil of his contract is unacceptable. It is my understanding that A-Rod is open to the idea of declining his player option for ’08-’10, which could offset the portion of Manny’s contract the Red Sox agree to pay.
Andrew, Youkilis has not developed the power to complement his plate discipline that the Red Sox had hoped. I think it is premature to pencil him in at 3B. Furthermore, when you say the Sox are “trading two superstars for one superstar and a medicore leftfielder” you are completely ignoring Nomar’s contract situation.
1. He is a free agent next year
2. He is demanding far more than he is worth in this market.
How do you know the Red Sox are going after a mediocre left fielder? That is not what I’m hearing.
I wonder if the Sox and A’s would want to swap walk-year players, with Nomar replacing Tejada for a year at short and Jermaine Dye replacing Manny Ramirez (assuming neither has health issues). Both make about $11M, so it’d be budget-neutral, but I don’t know if Dye’s Bay Area roots and Nomar’s SoCal roots would make them easier to leave in place (well, in Oakland and LA, at least). Or if Beane and Epstein would rather deal with other GMs instead of each other; I imagine there’s a disincentive to deal with someone who’s similarly opportunistic. Their better bet may be to bring in a third team (the mark, sucker, whatever you want to call them) and each pick the third team’s pocket (“Listen, Dan, Billy and I were just talking…”).
And hell, Jose Guillen is still out there. I’m sure the Sox could sign him for under $11M/year 😉
Wouldn’t even cost the Sox a draft pick, either; the A’s didn’t offer Guillen arbitration. Maybe if he’d changed his name to begin with K and end with Y, he’d have been invited back…
I’d trade Nomar for a bag of balls before an $11 million dollar banged up Jermaine Dye.
I still say the BoSox lose win shares if this trade goes through. Perez has 6, but you have to remember he’s replacing someone and whatever their WS were. Unless there is something sweet in the Nomar trade to LA (if that happens) I think overall they lose on the WS side.
As a Yankee fan, it wouldn’t hurt my feelings to see Nomar stay at this point. It’s more than likely there may be some clubhouse pressure if he does after all of this. Anything to keep RedSox Nation down I say is good. 🙂 I am a little concerned over this upcoming season though. It should be another dogfight. That’s of course if the now Wheelchaired Yankees don’t breakdown over the course. I think I saw a memo from Steiny that says anyone over 35 are the only ones allowed on the team this year.
I agree, Thornhill. Unless it’s a bag of soccer balls, of course.
If you would be unloved and forgotten, be reasonable.