Dave Cameron relays why MLB teams aren’t that high on Dan Haren:
As best as I can tell, it comes down to two issues – velocity and home runs. While Haren’s walk rate and strikeout rates are excellent, his home run rates have always been a bit of a problem. Of the 56 qualified starting pitchers over the last three calendar years, Haren’s 1.11 HR/9 ranks just 40th. He has done a good enough job at limiting baserunners that his longball issues haven’t been a huge problem, but giving up bombs is one of the easiest ways to look bad in front of scouts.
To us, a home run is simply -1.4 runs in the ledger, a mistake that may or may not be predictive of future success. To a lot of scouts, allowing a home run is a sign that there’s a problem with what you’re throwing. Some pitchers, such as Josh Beckett, can overcome this stigma by impressing with raw stuff – a 95 MPH fastball, a big 12-6 curve that buckles knees.
Haren, on the other hand, doesn’t have that kind of repertoire. His fastball is more 88-92, and he relies heavily on a 86-ish MPH cut fastball to keep hitters off balance. So, when he centers one of his average velocity fastballs and it gets blasted over the fence, it’s easy for scouts to assume that Haren is always going to give up a lot of dingers. It’s hard to be impressed when the radar gun says 89 and the ball went 450 feet.
My first thought was that Arizona was making Haren looks worse than he really was at giving up home runs, but he’s allowed more on the road than at home in his years with the Diamondbacks. Note also, that because of his low OBP allowed, 48 of the 69 allowed have come with the bases empty. He hasn not allowed a grand slam in that time, and he gives up just 1.3 runs per homer. Of the 84 pitchers who allowed 40 or more home runs since 2008, Haren ranks fifth in fewest runs per homer:
| Pitcher | Home Runs | Runs/HR |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 45 | 1.27 |
| Doug Davis | 44 | 1.30 |
| Jered Weaver | 62 | 1.32 |
| Felix Hernandez | 42 | 1.33 |
| Dan Haren | 69 | 1.35 |
| Ryan Rowland-Smith | 42 | 1.36 |
It’s quite possible the Angels were more willing to trade for Haren since they already have a pitcher like him, Jered Weaver, who is successful with the team. I think the Angels are going to be very happy with this deal.