If I told you a pitcher in August, in 30 innings, walked three, struck out 33, and did not allow a home run, what do you think his ERA should be? Would you be surprised if it were below 2.00? I wouldn’t. Would you be surprised if it were 4.50? Surprise! Those are Cliff Lee‘s numbers for the month. The Rays got to him in the eighth inning tonight. Tampa Bay pick up five of their nine hits in that inning and scored four runs to win the game over Texas 6-4. Lee was hurt by a botched fielder’s choice, but at 98 pitches thrown in the game, he shouldn’t have been that tired.
Lee has given up 33 hits in the month, which is high for someone with that many strikeouts. The Texas defense may be letting him down, but batters may also be looking for the ball in the strike zone. As I suggested in this post about the Twins, there might be a tipping point at which a pitcher’s walk rate is too low. I’m not convinced of that, low walk rates should be better. At this point, batters know he’s going to be in the strike zone, so they might as well be aggressive.
I think we’re both in agreement that low walks are better.
But thinking logically, there must be a threshold. At some point in order to walk fewer batters you have to throw “easier” strikes (ie, can’t try and hit the corners on 2-1, 3-1 pitches, etc).
Lee obviously has been doing a remarkable job this season. I highly doubt for him, personally, that he’s started throwing fastballs down the middle to maintain his incredible K/BB ratio. But as a rule of thumb, there must be a breaking point.
I wonder if Lee’s just got a shaky defense behind him. What’s his BABIP vs. the rest of the Rangers’ starters?