The Rangers get their second chance to clinch at home today as they send Tommy Hunter against the Rays and Wade Davis. Davis played 2010 as a 24-year-old rookie, improving as the season progressed. Looking at his all-star game splits, he cut down on his walks, from 4.02 per 9 IP before the break to 2.43 after. He also kept the ball in the park much better with a HR rate of 38.3 per 200 innings before, 16.2 per 200 after. That helped him to a 6-1 record with a 3.23 ERA post break.
Davis pitched against Texas in the first half of the season, and suffered his worst start of the year, allowing two home runs and eight runs in 3 1/3 innings of work. That game was also in Arlington.
Hunter is a year younger than Davis with more major league experience. His 2010 was no better than his 2009 performance, (and given the increase in home runs allowed a little worse), but he delivered an ERA about a quarter of a run lower. He held opponents to a .196 BA with runners in scoring position, and 15 of the 21 homers he allowed were solo shots. Although not a high strikeout pitcher, Hunter allows neither hits nor walks in great quantities, allowing him to survive the high home run rate. He is undefeated in Arlington this season, 7-0 with a 3.06 ERA. His walk and strikeout rates both move in a much more positive direction at his home ballpark.
The Giants and Braves follow with that series tied at one. Jonathan Sanchez squares off against Tim Hudson. With Atlanta going down to the wire to win a playoff spot, they needed to use their ace last Sunday to pitch them into the playoffs, holding him back until game three. That may actually give the Braves an advantage, as the matchup of a one and a three starter might give them a lead in the series.
Sanchez is not your typical number three starter, however. His 3.07 ERA ranked 13th in the National League, meaning he could be a number one starter on many teams. His strength lies in his ability to strikeout batters, his 9.54 K per 9 IP ranked third in the NL among ERA qualifiers. He does tend to get wild, however, something that a high walk team like the Braves could use to their advantage. Jonathan pitched great down the stretch, allowing a 1.01 ERA over his last six games.
Hudson pitched remarkably well, having returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of 2009. He pitched about a run an a quarter better than his FIP, due mostly to his high ground ball rate, 64.1%. Batter had an extremely tough time squaring the ball up, as his line drives came in at just 13.6%. Batters did catch up with him a bit from September first on, as he allowed nine of his 20 home runs in that span. It may have been fatigue from throwing 200 innings for the first time since 2007, so we’ll see how the week off helps.
Finally, the Phillies go for the sweep in Cincinnati as Cole Hamels, the 2 in H2O, takes the mound against Johnny Cueto. Hamels was dogged by home runs early in the season, giving up 19 in 112 innings before the All-Star break. Since then, he only allowed 7 in 96 2/3 innings, part of a surge by Cole that saw his overall hits fall greatly as well. He didn’t strike out that many more batters, but I suspect they were seeing fewer mistakes as he ERA came in at 2.23 post break. His transformation happened a little before the break, as he shutout the Reds for 7 2/3 innings on July 11th.
Cueto pitched tough at home this season, with a higher K rate, lower walk rate, and despite the configuration of the park, a much lower home run rate. Only six of his 19 home runs allowed came at Great American Ballpark. Cuteo cut down on his fly balls allowed this season, and those that were hit had a much better chance of staying in the yard. He made two starts against the Phillies this season. He walked four and struck out just three in 15 innings of work, but successfully pitched to contact as Philadelphia batters managed just ten hits against him. He came away with a 1-0 record and a 1.20 ERA.
Enjoy!