November 4, 2010

Incremental Improvement, Tampa Bay Rays

This is a continuing series on how various MLB teams might make a small change to improve themselves for 2011. The idea is laid out in the first of these posts.

The Tampa Bay Rays finished with the best record in the American League. The Rays are an interesting team, in that looking at individual position players, a number of good ones are on the list. If you look at a summary of positions, however, you see a number of spots with low OBPs and unremarkable slugging percentages. Why the difference? One, defense matters, and on the whole the Rays play good defense. Two, there are a number of players on the Rays who move around, so no one player dominates second base, shortstop, catcher or rightfield.

Taking all that in, the biggest problems spots seem to be shortstop and first base. The easiest one of these to deal with would be first, since Carlos Pena became a free agent. The other reason to deal with improving first base comes from Carl Crawford also going the free agent route. So the Rays are losing one of their highest and lowest producing players. In general, it is easier to find offense at first base, so the Rays could work on recovering Carl’s offense in at first, and recovering his defense with a good, young player. In fact, the Rays are ready to move Jason Jennings into left, and he might even make up some of Crawford’s offense.

Losing Crawford is tough, and it will difficult to actually pull off an incremental improvement this season. I suspect the Rays should be able to break even at the position, and as Jennings matures the team should pull ahead in a couple of years. Then Tampa Bay can work on short stop for next season, or centerfield if B.J. Upton doesn’t get his power back.

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