January 14, 2011

What to Pay Pujols

Dave Cameron tries to come up with a fair offer for Albert Pujols, and comes in at 10 years, $267 million.

If 10/267 sounds remarkably close to what Alex Rodriguez got, it is. They’re pretty similar players through this stage of their career. Pujols is a bit better hitter – his career wRC+ of 173 bests Rodriguez’s 153 mark through 2007, the year he opted out and signed his 10 year extension – but Rodriguez offered the potential of being able to play a tougher defensive position. When someone holds up Rodriguez’s deal as an example of the type of contract that Pujols should receive, they’re not grasping at straws; the numbers support a fair market value in that neighborhood.

Even if Pujols gives the Cardinals a 10 percent hometown discount, we’re still looking at his value being in the neighborhood of $240 million or so. If he wants his talents to be reflected in his next contract, the Cardinals are going to have to get somewhere near that number in order to give him separation from the likes of Teixeira and Joe Mauer, who each received $180 million deals and simply aren’t as good as he is.

On the other hand, Albert could want retroactive money. With the option for 2011, Albert will have made $116 million in eight years, about $14 million per year. He’s provided the Cardinals with at least $10 million more in value each year. If I’m Albert, I ask for $32 million a year and take $30 million. He’s earned a contract record.

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