January 21, 2011

Are Players Streaky?

Seth Samuels debunks the idea of inherently streaky players:

So what, ultimately, can we take away from all of this? Although the analysis is complicated, the lessons it teaches us are straightforward. Streaky seasons undoubtedly exist. However, it appears that there is no such thing as a streaky or unstreaky player. Rather, the truth seems to be that all players are streaky players. Being human, they have their ups and downs, and they are inherently streakier than random chance would dictate. They are not dice, and they are not random number generators. If Murray Chass ever read Fangraphs, I’m sure he’d be thrilled to hear that. But, again, there is no evidence whatsoever to suggest that a player who is especially streaky in one season will continue to be so in the next. Is this the final word on this issue? Almost certainly not. But right now there’s just no reason to believe that a player’s inherent streakiness, even if it exists, will have any greater impact on his performance than random chance. So, perhaps the next time you hear another owner in your fantasy league complain about how streaky David Wright is, you can offer Skip Schumaker one-for-one, and see what happens.

Part one of the study is here, and the whole series is well worth your read.

1 thought on “Are Players Streaky?

  1. Pete

    I think the order in which one faces pitchers is likely to be just as, if not more, important than chance in contributing to the apparent “streakiness” of a player’s season.

    ReplyReply

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