Andy Pettitte in the last game of his career, game three of the 2010 ALCS. Photo: Icon SMI
With Andy Pettitte about to retire, it’s time to see where the left-hander belongs in the history of the game. As much as I like Pettitte, I don’t think he should be elected to the Hall of Fame.
There are two main attractions for putting Pettitte in the Hall. The first is his .635 winning percentage, which ranks 43rd all time according to Baseball Reference. That’s based on 100 decisions, which frankly is only four seasons worth for a regular starter. If you set it at the much tougher to reach 200 decisions, he comes in at 28th, just behind Mike Mussina and Jim Palmer and just ahead of Kid Nichols. In terms of wins and losses, he’s an elite pitcher.
The other huge factor is his post-season success. He earned a 19-10 record, a .655 winnings percentage. Andy pitched 263 innings during the post season, adding the equivalent of a whole year to his career. He managed a 3.83 ERA in the playoffs, lower than his 3.88 ERA in the regular season. Given that the team he faced in October should have been on average better than the teams he faced during the season, that should also be a plus.
Those ERAs, however, will be the sticking point. Even in a high run ERA, 3.88 is not that impressive. Andy won a high percentage of his games by being good, not great, and having a fantastic offense behind him almost every year and Mariano Rivera to close games. So Pettitte’s great record rests on him being very good, very durable, and landing in the right place at the right time. Even without the PED taint, I don’t think he should get elected to the Hall. He’s Jack Morris without the “best pitcher of the decade” label.
His place in history will be in monument park, as one of the four great anchor lefties in the Yankees tradition.
| Pitcher | Record | Winning Pct. | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lefty Gomez | 189-101 | .652 | 3.34 |
| Whitey Ford | 236-106 | .690 | 2.75 |
| Ron Guidry | 170-91 | .651 | 3.29 |
| Andy Pettitte | 203-112 | .644 | 3.98 |
Andy holds a higher ERA and lower winning percentage than the other three. Guidry, and Gomez, despite their his great success (and success in the post season) didn’t make the Hall of Fame. They are revered in Yankees history, however, and Andy will join the legend of that group.
Correction: Gomez was elected to the Hall of Fame by the veterans committee.
gomez is in the hof
Lefty Gomez is in the HOF–Veterans Committee, 1972.
Thing is, Pettittes ERA comes from pitching in the AL East in the steroid era with the DH, and a much higher run environment than Guidry, Ford and Gomez.
From 1993 to 2010, only 10 pitchers have pitched 2000 IP or more in the AL, and Pettite is ranked 5th, after Clemens, Halladay and Mussina . Buehrle as well but he pitched in the AL Central.
But I agree, he is borderline HOF material, as is Schilling (whe benefitted from pitching his peak years in the NL which lowered his ERA at least 0.5)
I don’t know how many HOF slots should be reserved for each generation, but there are 68 pitchers in the HOF who pitched up to 1993. Thats on average about 15 players for each 25 year period in MLB, and given the number of teams today relative to the average of the past 100 years, you could argue that 25 pitchers could be elected for the past generation up to 2010.
From 1985-2010, there have been only 14 pitchers who pitched 3000 or more innings in this period, and Pettitte is 9th among them in ERA+, right behind Tom Glavine (118 vs 116).
Still leaves room for 1/2 dozen or so RP’ers.
Pettitte is a clear member of the Hall of Very Good. But I think it’s equally clear that he’s not a Hall of Famer. His entire case rests on his win/loss and his postseason stats. As Pinto correctly points out, it’s just not that hard to rack up gaudy win/loss percentages when you’re pitching for the late 90s and 00s Yankees and having your games closed by Mariano Rivera.
A fun test of the imagination is to wonder how Bert Blyleven’s career win/loss would look if he’d pitched for the same Yankees teams that Pettitte did.
Pettite has the 2000-2009 decade most wins I think, IIATMS has a nice post of rolling per decade winners. Andy was totally the best per one of those decades:
http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2011/01/03/andy-pettitte-winningest-pitcher-2000-2009/
I can’t find the rolling decade post, but it is kinda neat.
I love pettitte, but alas a full year last year and a full one this year might have put him over the top, but without that? At least he will have his yankee number retired. He and mattingly can be in the best yankees not in the hall club.
He is the pitching pillar for the best baseball dynasty of the last what 30 years? 5 time champion, pitched in the steriod era in the AL East, primarily in a hitters park, won 20 games twice, and 19 games once or twice and almost had an unbelievable 20 post season wins, I think never had a losing record, only pitcher in major league history to make 15 starts for 16 years, all time leader for pick offs, post season starts, wins,god knows what else and is over a 100 games above >500 for his career-He is in the HOF guys