February 21, 2011

Five Year PMR, Shortstops

The long term fielding study continues with a look at shortstops. (See yesterday’s post for background.) The following table shows how the teams performed as a whole at the position over the last five years:

Team shortstop PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
COL 17144 2884 2684.1 0.168 0.157 107.4
ATL 16331 2696 2544.0 0.165 0.156 106.0
MIN 16153 2803 2670.7 0.174 0.165 105.0
SLN 17324 2828 2721.8 0.163 0.157 103.9
TEX 16725 2713 2612.6 0.162 0.156 103.8
LAN 16314 2744 2643.8 0.168 0.162 103.8
MIL 16139 2622 2535.9 0.162 0.157 103.4
PIT 16925 2804 2746.7 0.166 0.162 102.1
TOR 16460 2617 2574.3 0.159 0.156 101.7
KCA 16492 2635 2595.6 0.160 0.157 101.5
PHI 17622 2606 2569.6 0.148 0.146 101.4
SDN 16243 2599 2564.5 0.160 0.158 101.3
ANA 15703 2510 2481.2 0.160 0.158 101.2
HOU 16079 2637 2612.2 0.164 0.162 101.0
CHA 16511 2707 2680.3 0.164 0.162 101.0
CHN 15291 2499 2473.8 0.163 0.162 101.0
BAL 16583 2642 2643.3 0.159 0.159 100.0
DET 16622 2566 2575.4 0.154 0.155 99.6
SEA 16618 2590 2605.7 0.156 0.157 99.4
CLE 16968 2764 2784.9 0.163 0.164 99.3
CIN 16487 2497 2521.5 0.151 0.153 99.0
ARI 17295 2524 2554.6 0.146 0.148 98.8
TBA 16778 2420 2451.4 0.144 0.146 98.7
WAS 16945 2623 2664.9 0.155 0.157 98.4
FLO 17005 2443 2486.5 0.144 0.146 98.2
BOS 15942 2448 2498.9 0.154 0.157 98.0
OAK 16251 2588 2646.0 0.159 0.163 97.8
SFN 15499 2509 2565.1 0.162 0.166 97.8
NYA 16663 2364 2496.1 0.142 0.150 94.7
NYN 16262 2491 2641.2 0.153 0.162 94.3

I’m surprised Texas does this well, as Michael Young was the shortstop for a good period of time here, and he’s not known for his defensive ability. Minnesota’s ranking makes some sense as the team is known for good defense. Boston’s rotating players at the position took a toll. It’s been a terrible half-decade in New York. Despite their high-profile shortstops, this study show they were poor fielders.

On to the individuals. The following table shows shortstops on the field for at least 5000 balls in play over the last five seasons. That gives us the regulars and semi-regulars.

Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Brendan Ryan 5653 1004 885.8 0.178 0.157 113.3
Yunel Escobar 8574 1464 1332.7 0.171 0.155 109.9
Elvis Andrus 5577 951 878.4 0.171 0.158 108.3
Troy Tulowitzki 11389 1928 1779.9 0.169 0.156 108.3
Jack Wilson 10305 1759 1665.8 0.171 0.162 105.6
Jason Bartlett 12100 1939 1841.6 0.160 0.152 105.3
Adam Everett 7554 1263 1205.7 0.167 0.160 104.8
Rafael Furcal 11168 1901 1819.9 0.170 0.163 104.5
Alexei Ramirez 6102 1008 968.8 0.165 0.159 104.0
Cristian Guzman 6351 1012 976.9 0.159 0.154 103.6
Erick Aybar 7345 1197 1159.1 0.163 0.158 103.3
Cesar Izturis 9194 1514 1472.7 0.165 0.160 102.8
Ronny Cedeno 7367 1210 1182.9 0.164 0.161 102.3
Jimmy Rollins 14724 2203 2154.5 0.150 0.146 102.3
J.J. Hardy 10454 1688 1654.7 0.161 0.158 102.0
Marco Scutaro 8509 1352 1334.1 0.159 0.157 101.3
Alex Gonzalez 9437 1507 1489.8 0.160 0.158 101.2
Michael Young 9493 1498 1483.6 0.158 0.156 101.0
Ryan Theriot 7811 1263 1255.1 0.162 0.161 100.6
Jhonny Peralta 10774 1782 1776.7 0.165 0.165 100.3
John McDonald 5264 811 811.2 0.154 0.154 100.0
Juan Uribe 8144 1329 1337.5 0.163 0.164 99.4
Omar Vizquel 7598 1247 1255.2 0.164 0.165 99.3
Carlos Guillen 5410 854 861.0 0.158 0.159 99.2
Bobby Crosby 6977 1115 1128.6 0.160 0.162 98.8
Orlando Cabrera 14196 2243 2276.2 0.158 0.160 98.5
Hanley Ramirez 15208 2191 2225.0 0.144 0.146 98.5
Julio Lugo 6982 1074 1090.3 0.154 0.156 98.5
Khalil Greene 8178 1264 1284.9 0.155 0.157 98.4
Yuniesky Betancourt 15070 2318 2372.4 0.154 0.157 97.7
Miguel Tejada 12527 1963 2009.9 0.157 0.160 97.7
Edgar Renteria 11358 1746 1797.3 0.154 0.158 97.1
Stephen Drew 13184 1869 1946.1 0.142 0.148 96.0
David Eckstein 5814 880 921.7 0.151 0.159 95.5
Jose Reyes 12550 1930 2041.1 0.154 0.163 94.6
Felipe Lopez 5884 870 931.7 0.148 0.158 93.4
Derek Jeter 14916 2076 2241.1 0.139 0.150 92.6

You can see why Texas ranked so high. Michael Young played a little above league average, while Elvis Andrus came out near the top of the rankings. Of the longer term shortstops, Troy Tulowitzki brought the Rockies up to the number one team ranking.

Derek Jeter ranks last, despite his good 2009 season, which brings me back to the whole idea of presenting a more objective model, biases in scoring hit location make some players look better. This system shows Jeter turning 165 fewer balls into outs than expected. Looking at FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, both which use batted ball location data, this objective model is very much in line with their results. Jeter is a poor fielder compared to the average shortstop.

The big disagreement comes with Omar Vizquel. FanGraphs rates his range very high, and BR shows him positively contributing to the defense. Since Omar has such a great reputation as a fielder, maybe scorers are putting balls he doesn’t get to more out of reach than than they should be. It would make sense, at Omar’s age, that he would not be that great defensively anymore.

As always, I’m interested in your thoughts.

5 thoughts on “Five Year PMR, Shortstops

  1. Pingback: Monday evening linkaliciousness - Texas Rangers Baseball Blog

  2. jake williams

    PMR, WAR, UZR and other acronyms that lend a veneer of science to a highly subjective topic …. rating defensive
    prowess … is a joke and is perpetrated by people who likely
    never progressed beyond little league.
    grounders are one form of batted ball. that covers it ?? you
    have got to be kidding.
    shortstop is the key defensive position on a baseball team. derek jeter is the yankees shortstop. the yankees have had
    enormous success over the past 5 years. derek jeter is the
    worst shortstop in all baseball… see a disconnect ???

    back to the computer … maybe you can divide the field in
    128 pieces. have fun while the the rest of us are watching the games.

    ReplyReply

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