Harry Pavlidis notes this clause in Adam Wainwright’s contract:
Wainwright’s 2010 Cy Young votes earned him a vesting option … almost. He has to be off the DL at the end of 2011 for the 2012 option to kick-in.
If Adam undergoes Tommy John surgery, there is no way he is off the disabled list at the end of the season.
The prgnosis for TJ surgery is very good, much better than for shoulder surgeries. He may even come back throwing harder.
If Wainright was healthy, he makes 21 million for 2012 and 2013. If the Cardinals do not pick up the 9 million option for 2012, Wainright becomes a FA. I dare say he will make more money with a team like the Yankees than those two options would pay him. He will only be 30 in his comeback year in 2012 (say by ASB), so not so much risk offering him a 2 year deal for 21 million with a mutual option for a 3rd year at his market value (pre-injury). The expectation would be that Wainright pitches like the pre-TJS Wainright in 2013 and 2014, with 2011 being pretty much a lost season or least lost 1/2 season).
So do the Cards pick up both options hoping for a pre-TJS Wainright in 2013. If so the cost would be about what Wainrights market value is (pre-TJS). If not, I bet Wainright gets signed by the Red Sox or Yankees.