Rob Neyer comments on Tom Verducci’s piece on Stephen Strasburg‘s mechanics. Rob quotes an anonymous source who would not draft a pitcher with Strasburg’s motion:
Here’s where my skepticism kicks in … When Strasburg was coming out of college, he was universally considered the best player in the draft. If this “one club” had owned the first pick, would it have passed up Strasburg?
Probably. If a club thinks a pitcher will break down, it’s in their interest to convince the other clubs that the pitcher is great. That way, a competitor gets stuck with the damaged goods. No one, before the draft, is going to say, “No one should pick Strasburg because he’ll blow out his elbow!”
I liked this:
I’m still not convinced that anybody really knows what they’re talking about, and can pinpoint with any real accuracy which pitchers are going to get hurt and which ones aren’t.
Whenever I see writeups about the inverse W, or any other pitching mechanics writeup, I never see what the author is talking about.
Maybe there is a way to predict injury by watching someone pitch, but I feel like no one currently has the knowhow to do it.
I would like to know which team claims they would have passed up on Strasburg; maybe if their pitchers get injured any less frequently I’d give that comment more weight. Are there teams who have pitchers that don’t get hurt as often?
“No one, before the draft, is going to say, ‘No one should pick Strasburg because he’ll blow out his elbow!'” Unless they think he has perfect mechanics and will be very durable.