Chad Jennings wonders if CC Sabathia can win the Cy Young award:
With 13 wins and 2.72 ERA, Sabathia was very much an all-star starter through the first half. He’s the first Yankees starter with that many wins at the break since Andy Pettitte in 1996. He’s riding a career-best 23.2-inning scoreless streak.
“I’ve been in the league not really for a long time, seven years, but I mean I haven’t seen a guy like him,” Robinson Cano said. “Go to the mound, pitch the way he pitches every time he goes out there. I don’t remember seeing just three or four innings. He always makes it happen.”
Sabathia’s already won one Cy Young award. If he keeps this pace, he might pitch his way to another.
I assumed Justin Verlander or Jered Weaver were the front runners for the award, but I noticed CC leads the AL in WAR. I’m somewhat surprised by that. Weaver and Verlander own better walk numbers, and Verlander is striking out almost a batter more per nine innings. CC, however, has an incredibly low home run rate. I also have to believe that park adjustments help him.
I understand that FanGraphs WAR is three true outcomes based. The Tigers have a better defense than the Yankees, so I can see where that might give CC a bit of an edge, too. If I were voting, however, Verlander’s results seem to indicate he’s successful beyond his three-true outcomes, and he’s the outstanding pitcher of the first half.
I would also pick Verlander over Sabathia. (One further factor that you didn’t mention: Sabathia has pitched against better hitters than Verlander, on average. Still, Verlander has been awesome.)
But I completely agree with Chad that CC has a good chance. I mean, he needs to have a better second half than Justin, but it’s entirely possible.
I don’t pay attention to FG WAR for pitchers since I believe preventing runs is more than luck. B-Refs has him a 3.5 compared to FG 4.8.
CC gets a park adjustment advantage despite the fact that being a LHP’er means he faces more RHB’ers in Yankee Stadium, which helps him since LF is helpful to hitters.
Also, CC is getting beat by the Rangers and Red Sox who are the only real good hitting teams. Has an ERA of about 6 in 6 starts.
Beating up on the the NL and weaker hitting AL teams is something CC is doing well. He also gets a ton of RS which is inflating his win totals.
Uh, you do understand, pft, that the fact that most of the runs scored against CC have been scored by exceptionally good-hitting teams was exactly my point, right? Verlander has to face those teams less often.
The Park Adjustment factor is initially a very small factor, and if you multiply it by the small fraction of “extra” right-handed batters that lefties face it’s vanishingly tiny.
Three-true outcomes?
Slideshow Bob » Strikeouts, walks, home runs. They are the only outcomes the pitcher totally controls.
Well, if Verlander had gotten half the run support that CC has gotten from his team, he’d have at least 4 more wins.
The Yankees have scored 6 or more runs 11 times for CC, and he’s gone 9-0, with a 2.53 ERA, and a decent WHIP of 1.14.
Verlander has gotten 6 games of that kind of run support and is 5-0, with a 2.49 ERA, but an absurd WHIP of .62. Basically one guy gets a lot more run support, and it shows because he’s also 6-0 when his offense gets him 3 to 5 runs.
Better yet, in Verlander’s 4 losses his ERA is 2.83 while in Sabathia’s 4 losses his ERA is 5.88. And his WHIP is almost 2 those losses. Verlander is leading the league in WHIP, IP, K’s while actually being first in WAR for all pitchers at 5.4(yes, better than Halladay, Weaver and Sabathia.) He’s second in complete games, ERA, complete games, and has his second no hitter while just missing another with a 2 hitter.
You say that Detroit has a better defense than New York? Would you rather have Texeira playing first or Cabrera? Would you rather have Granderson in CF with Gardner in LF or Jackson in CF with Boesch or Ordonez? Inge is horrible at this point, and A-Rod is a better defender no matter how immobile he appears. The Tigers have better fielders at catcher and shortstop basically(even though Cano might suck.) And in four more games, Detroit has 33 less homeruns, 31 less walks, 47 less steals, and is slugging only .415 compared to .444.
So basically, no CC does not deserve the Cy Young Award. He’s leading the league in wins, and that’s it. Wow… Verlander, Beckett, Weaver and Haren are all having better seasons. Thought after King Felix won last year people would pay attention to how dominant a pitcher actually is. I hate this stat, but Verlander has 19 quality starts out of 20. CC only has 12. And the league is hitting .188 against Verlander but hitting Sabathia at a clip of .243. If that doesn’t tell you who’s the Cy Young, you’re not watching the same season everyone else is.