The Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers meet for the second consecutive season in the ALDS. The Rangers finished 96-66, first in the AL West and second in the American League. The Rays won the wild card with 91-71 record fourth best in the AL. The Rays ranked third in the AL East from May 24th to Sept. 25th. It took them until extra innings on the last day of the season to win the Wild Card.

Offense

Texas owns the superior offense. Note that their good OBP is somewhat hit dependent, as they rank first in BA but third in OBP. The supply plenty of power up and down the lineup, and finished the season on a home run tear, especially Adrian Beltre.

The Rays bring a below average offense to the series. The given the various ranks of their categories, it seems the Tampa Bay front office spent their money on walks and home runs. Their OBP ranks much higher than their batting average, indicating they are making up for hits with bases on balls. Their home runs rank higher than their slugging percentage, indicating that their extra base power comes mainly from home runs (although they ranked second in triples). So the Rays try to earn a few free passes, then hit a long ball. That was pretty much the eighth against the Yankees on Wednesday night. Both teams steal well, but the Rangers overall have more offensive weapons.

Pitching and Defense

Update 9:52 PM EDT: Matt Moore will start game one for the Rays. That’s gutsy move but it doesn’t change my probabilities. There’s no way to know how Moore will handle the Rangers. These are not AAA hitters.

The Rays allowed the fewest runs per game in the AL this season despite the second lowest ERA. The staff does not impress that much in the three-true outcomes, ranking middle of the league in each. The Rays keep runs from scoring by catching the ball better than any other AL team. Tampa Bay can pitch to contact, as their defense is more than capable of turning balls in plays into outs. This is a case with the pitchers look good, but the fielders are doing the heavy lifting.

That should help them with the Texas offense. The Rangers high batting average should suffer against the Rays defense, and if that happens, the Rays might be able to match them with homers and walks.

The Rangers pitching staff is more than good enough for the Rangers offense. In terms of walks and strikeouts, they outshine Tampa Bay. They do allow home runs, but part of that is a function of playing in Texas and their defense is quite good also.

The Series

The key for the Rays will be to try to reduce the Rangers’ batting average, bring the OBP of the teams more in line, then hope they can out-homer Texas. That’s pretty much what the Giants did to both Philadelphia and Texas last season.

The wild card in all this is Matt Moore. He pitched 9 1/3 innings at the end of the season, walking three and striking out 15. Spending his minor league season as a starter, Joe Maddon could use him in long relief if one of his starters falters, or as a two-inning set up man, helping to further hide the lack of depth in the bullpen.

The Rangers should have the advantage in game one as C.J. Wilson takes on Jeff Niemann. The Rays get that back in games two and three, however, as Tampa Bay sends James Shields and David Price against Derek Holland and Colby Lewis.

Texas should have the advantage in this series, but the Rays defense has a chance to neutralize some of the Rangers offense. I’d estimate Texas with a 54% chance of winning the series, based on a more diverse offense.