Viva el Birdos looks at the reasons for and against signing Yadier Molina to an extension:
Typically I’d agree with Bernie Miklasz, who suggested yesterday that Molina’s price will only go up over the course of the next season, but I don’t see how Yadier Molina could be any more valuable than he is right now—and the gap between his current valuation and his “true” valuation might be wide enough to offset the bump he’ll get in free agency.
Right now Molina couldn’t look much better than he does: He’s coming off an OPS+ of 126 and a career-high 14 home runs, he’s played at least 130 games three years in a row, and he’s just 29 years old. He’s widely regarded as the best defensive catcher in baseball, and as difficult as that is to quantify he also just had the 31st-best offensive season of any catcher since 2000. Which probably isn’t going into his Scott Boras-style notebook, but is impressive nevertheless.
Which is why the Cardinals should wait. They have him locked up for another year. If he plays well, the Cardinals get the benefit of great production at a low price. If he has a off-year, the Cardinals could sign him at a lower price. If he suffers an extreme fall-off, the Cardinals won’t be stuck with a bad contract.
I like Molina’s intangible’s to go along w/his defensive prowess. I believe the opinion of his peers should go far in evaluating what he does defensively. I believe that he only gets better offensively for several years yet. We know what he’s capable of in the post season … Sign him!
I don’t know, Lee.. catchers as a species don’t age well as hitters…
Molina has gotten at least 450 PA in five of the last six seasons as the Cardinals’ starting catcher (he was limited by injuries in 2007) and put up an OPS+ over 100 one time (last year, as noted). He also had an OPS+ of exactly 100 in 2009.
In the history of baseball (since 1901), only 31 catchers have had at least one season from age 32-on in which they had at least 450 PA and an OPS+ over 100…and many of those were great hitters over their entire careers (Bill Dickey, Carlton Fisk, Elston Howard, Gabby Hartnett, Gary Carter, I-Rod, Posada, Piazza, Lance Parrish, Mickey Cochrane, Roy Campanella, etc.)
Even most of the “non-big-name-stars” on the list (Ernie Whitt, Sherm Lollar, Mike Stanley, Bill Haller) had at least a half-dozen seasons in their careers with an OPS+ over 100.
Realistically, Yadier Molina will not be joining this list. I can see him being a decent hitter for the next couple of years, but his physique and his overall hitting history do not suggest a player that will be putting up above-average offensive seasons into his mid-30s.
I love Yadi—he may be my favorite Cardinal—and I hope he ends his career a Cardinal. But if he is extended, it should’t go beyond his age-31 season, which would be 2014.