Objective PMR, Pitcher Support

One nice thing about the Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR) is that it can be used to explore more than fielding skill. Applied to the defense behind a pitcher, it can be a measure of how much that hurler was helped or hurt by his defense. The following chart shows objective PMR stats for defenses with a particular pitcher on the mound in 2011, minimum 300 balls in play:

Objective PMR, performance behind pitchers. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only.
Pitcher	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Index
Josh Tomlin	525	387	356.4	0.737	0.679	108.6
Josh Beckett	511	382	356.2	0.748	0.697	107.3
Justin Verlander	635	477	445.5	0.751	0.702	107.1
Jeremy Hellickson	560	431	404.4	0.770	0.722	106.6
Randy Wolf	636	447	420.0	0.703	0.660	106.4
Doug Fister	669	478	453.7	0.714	0.678	105.4
Ricky Romero	620	457	434.8	0.737	0.701	105.1
Kyle Lohse	525	375	357.3	0.714	0.681	105.0
Kyle Kendrick	346	251	239.1	0.725	0.691	105.0
Jeff Niemann	407	292	278.4	0.717	0.684	104.9
Randy Wells	393	277	264.2	0.705	0.672	104.8
Chris Narveson	473	328	313.6	0.693	0.663	104.6
Blake Beavan	332	235	224.9	0.708	0.678	104.5
Joe Saunders	652	469	448.8	0.719	0.688	104.5
Ervin Santana	665	474	454.3	0.713	0.683	104.3
James Shields	655	478	458.4	0.730	0.700	104.3
Fausto Carmona	606	420	403.2	0.693	0.665	104.2
Gavin Floyd	569	405	389.0	0.712	0.684	104.1
Jered Weaver	649	481	462.0	0.741	0.712	104.1
Ian Kennedy	563	405	389.0	0.719	0.691	104.1
Jhoulys Chacin	502	363	349.3	0.723	0.696	103.9
Alexi Ogando	500	360	347.0	0.720	0.694	103.7
Tommy Hanson	316	225	217.0	0.712	0.687	103.7
Carlos Villanueva	339	242	233.6	0.714	0.689	103.6
Johnny Cueto	428	310	299.5	0.724	0.700	103.5
Alfredo Aceves	326	246	238.0	0.755	0.730	103.4
Javier Vazquez	549	388	375.1	0.707	0.683	103.4
Luke Hochevar	615	440	425.6	0.715	0.692	103.4
Philip Humber	499	357	345.8	0.715	0.693	103.2
Cole Hamels	542	391	378.9	0.721	0.699	103.2
Dan Haren	703	502	486.9	0.714	0.693	103.1
Ivan Nova	530	371	360.0	0.700	0.679	103.1
Jeremy Guthrie	629	445	431.5	0.707	0.686	103.1
Bronson Arroyo	650	464	450.2	0.714	0.693	103.1
Carlos Carrasco	368	256	248.6	0.696	0.675	103.0
Jair Jurrjens	453	327	317.6	0.722	0.701	103.0
Guillermo Moscoso	398	300	292.2	0.754	0.734	102.7
David Price	606	428	416.9	0.706	0.688	102.7
Tim Stauffer	524	372	362.2	0.710	0.691	102.7
Tim Hudson	612	434	423.6	0.709	0.692	102.5
Chris Carpenter	664	445	434.1	0.670	0.654	102.5
Wandy Rodriguez	505	350	342.1	0.693	0.677	102.3
Jordan Lyles	303	204	199.4	0.673	0.658	102.3
Freddy Garcia	466	323	316.0	0.693	0.678	102.2
Jason Hammel	531	371	363.5	0.699	0.685	102.1
Homer Bailey	386	270	264.4	0.699	0.685	102.1
Ted Lilly	516	375	367.2	0.727	0.712	102.1
Carlos Zambrano	437	304	297.7	0.696	0.681	102.1
John Lannan	568	385	377.9	0.678	0.665	101.9
Cliff Lee	594	417	409.3	0.702	0.689	101.9
Josh Collmenter	456	338	331.7	0.741	0.727	101.9
Vance Worley	355	250	245.4	0.704	0.691	101.9
J.A. Happ	411	279	274.0	0.679	0.667	101.8
Dillon Gee	465	330	324.5	0.710	0.698	101.7
Michael Pineda	446	324	319.5	0.726	0.716	101.4
Jon Lester	491	347	342.5	0.707	0.697	101.3
Jake Peavy	338	230	227.3	0.680	0.673	101.2
Mike Leake	454	319	315.1	0.703	0.694	101.2
Dustin Moseley	376	264	261.0	0.702	0.694	101.1
Kyle McClellan	457	323	319.5	0.707	0.699	101.1
Bud Norris	468	324	320.9	0.692	0.686	101.0
Shaun Marcum	532	381	377.6	0.716	0.710	100.9
C.J. Wilson	609	422	418.4	0.693	0.687	100.9
Bruce Chen	482	341	338.4	0.707	0.702	100.8
Scott Baker	375	261	258.9	0.696	0.691	100.8
Brandon McCarthy	531	365	362.5	0.687	0.683	100.7
Edwin Jackson	613	402	399.5	0.656	0.652	100.6
Livan Hernandez	563	382	379.7	0.679	0.674	100.6
Colby Lewis	571	414	411.4	0.725	0.720	100.6
Justin Masterson	643	436	433.7	0.678	0.675	100.5
A.J. Burnett	541	370	368.7	0.684	0.682	100.4
Brett Cecil	376	272	270.9	0.723	0.720	100.4
Tim Wakefield	482	343	341.6	0.712	0.709	100.4
Wade Davis	596	422	420.4	0.708	0.705	100.4
Brandon Morrow	471	320	318.6	0.679	0.677	100.4
Hiroki Kuroda	566	399	397.2	0.705	0.702	100.4
Carl Pavano	753	509	507.0	0.676	0.673	100.4
Anthony Swarzak	346	238	237.4	0.688	0.686	100.3
Chris Volstad	512	344	343.1	0.672	0.670	100.3
Erik Bedard	353	243	242.4	0.688	0.687	100.3
Jake Westbrook	574	387	385.9	0.674	0.672	100.3
Jason Marquis	405	274	274.4	0.677	0.677	99.9
Jordan Zimmermann	466	325	325.2	0.697	0.698	99.9
Jake Arrieta	330	234	234.3	0.709	0.710	99.9
Ryan Dempster	564	376	376.4	0.667	0.667	99.9
Clayton Kershaw	540	383	383.9	0.709	0.711	99.8
Gio Gonzalez	532	369	370.2	0.694	0.696	99.7
Matt Cain	303	217	217.6	0.716	0.718	99.7
Jason Vargas	640	445	446.6	0.695	0.698	99.6
Joel Pineiro	513	340	341.4	0.663	0.666	99.6
Tyler Chatwood	468	312	313.4	0.667	0.670	99.5
Zachary Britton	475	324	325.5	0.682	0.685	99.5
Chad Billingsley	513	350	352.2	0.682	0.687	99.4
Brett Myers	604	414	416.3	0.685	0.689	99.4
Derek Holland	586	394	396.7	0.672	0.677	99.3
Mark Buehrle	681	472	475.2	0.693	0.698	99.3
Felix Hernandez	649	440	443.8	0.678	0.684	99.1
R.A. Dickey	611	429	433.1	0.702	0.709	99.1
Francisco Liriano	383	267	269.8	0.697	0.704	99.0
Trevor Cahill	634	428	433.3	0.675	0.683	98.8
Roy Halladay	650	449	454.9	0.691	0.700	98.7
Matt Harrison	574	393	398.4	0.685	0.694	98.6
Nick Blackburn	497	324	328.9	0.652	0.662	98.5
Zack Greinke	425	279	283.4	0.656	0.667	98.4
Bartolo Colon	495	337	342.7	0.681	0.692	98.3
Ubaldo Jimenez	525	348	354.5	0.663	0.675	98.2
Yovani Gallardo	554	382	389.2	0.690	0.703	98.2
Brad Penny	623	420	428.0	0.674	0.687	98.1
Mike Pelfrey	624	425	433.7	0.681	0.695	98.0
Chris Capuano	517	346	353.4	0.669	0.684	97.9
CC Sabathia	670	443	454.1	0.661	0.678	97.6
Anibal Sanchez	500	332	340.3	0.664	0.681	97.6
Max Scherzer	551	373	382.5	0.677	0.694	97.5
Jaime Garcia	570	377	387.2	0.661	0.679	97.4
Brad Bergesen	332	225	231.4	0.678	0.697	97.2
John Danks	521	352	362.6	0.676	0.696	97.1
Madison Bumgarner	300	203	209.1	0.677	0.697	97.1
Daniel Hudson	595	402	415.0	0.676	0.697	96.9
Mat Latos	481	335	345.9	0.696	0.719	96.9
Clayton Richard	314	211	217.7	0.672	0.693	96.9
Jo-Jo Reyes	479	317	327.6	0.662	0.684	96.8
Matt Garza	523	347	358.3	0.663	0.685	96.8
Ricky Nolasco	634	414	427.5	0.653	0.674	96.8
Aaron Cook	343	223	230.3	0.650	0.671	96.8
Brian Duensing	502	330	341.8	0.657	0.681	96.6
Rick Porcello	587	388	401.7	0.661	0.684	96.6
John Lackey	540	351	363.9	0.650	0.674	96.5
Derek Lowe	607	397	411.2	0.654	0.677	96.5
Alfredo Simon	357	238	246.7	0.667	0.691	96.5
Aaron Harang	477	334	346.3	0.700	0.726	96.5
Brandon Beachy	342	231	239.7	0.675	0.701	96.4
Jeff Francis	649	433	449.6	0.667	0.693	96.3
Phil Coke	356	233	242.2	0.654	0.680	96.2
Jonathon Niese	494	320	333.1	0.648	0.674	96.1
Danny Duffy	316	209	218.7	0.661	0.692	95.6
Roy Oswalt	430	294	310.6	0.684	0.722	94.7
Felipe Paulino	380	248	263.1	0.653	0.692	94.3

Notice that Justin Verlander and Josh Beckett both producEd High expected DERs, but the defense magnified that by turning so many more batted balls into outs. Verlander pitched very well, but his defense gave him that extra push into the Cy Young.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Phillies defense hurt Roy Oswalt. His balls in play were relatively easy to field, but the Philadelphia defense let Roy down. A team with a good defense might do well to lure Oswalt to their mound.

Those predicted DER numbers should not be taken as an absolute, however. Parks play a big factor in those. We would expect them to be lower in Coors, for example, than in PETCO. So the index represents how much the defense helped or hurt the pitcher, but the predicted DERs should not be used by themselves to rate the hurler.

In objective PMR, where we don’t measure the direction or the speed of the ball off the bat, it could be that someone like Justin Verlander was helping his defense, instead of the other way around. When batters have trouble making contact against a pitcher, they probably have trouble making good contact as well. It’s possible that the balls in play against Justin were simply easier to field.

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March 8, 2012

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