March 30, 2012

Radar Gun Worries

Jim Johnson of the Orioles faces questions about a drop in his velocity:

“The one thing they forget is, velocity helps you get to the big leagues, but command makes you stay there. It’s like the third important thing. It flip-flops. To get to the big leagues, velocity is important, then command, then movement. Or movement and then command. In the big leagues, to stay here, you’ve got to have location, movement and then velocity, in that order. I’m more concerned with other things than what the scoreboard says. I read the bats. That’s the important part.”

So why has there been a drop in his velocity this spring? (No, I wouldn’t let it go. You’re welcome.)

“I’m trying to locate the ball more than anything else,” he said. “I don’t know what to tell you. It’s not like I’m trying to throw 40 percent or something. It’s not like I’m throwing half-speed. I’m throwing the ball like I’m supposed to. I know how the ball feels – like the famous ‘It’s coming out of my hand fine.'”

If you look at Jim Johnson’s record, he greatly improved his walk rate the last two seasons. Despite good velocity, he is not a strike out pitcher, so the low walk rate is important to his success.

Of course, there’s a much simpler explanation to a drop in velocity. He plays 2012 as a 29-year-old. When pitchers get to be around 30, they tend to lose velocity off their fastball. The good ones adjust, and lower their walk rates to make up for more hits. Johnson already did that.

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