June 4, 2012

Draft Advice

Keep this in mind if you watch the MLB draft tonight (it’s pointed at Mariners fans, but it likely applies across the board):

Don’t have too strong of an opinion about what the team should do.

I’m not big on appeals to authority, but in this case, the information gap between what the teams know and what the public knows is so vast that having any kind of strong reaction is probably not warranted. You may have a favorite prospect based on what you’ve read or the success of past similar players, but the reality is that none of us really know very much about any of these kids. While Jack Z’s history of Major League acquisitions hasn’t been fantastic, the front office has a very strong track record in the draft, and this is the thing they’re best at. If they’re higher on someone than you are, I’d bet they have a pretty decent reason for why they disagree with you. It doesn’t mean they’re right (Steve Baron, anyone?), but at the very least, we should all acknowledge that we don’t have enough information to make a strong critique one way or another. There are some things about baseball that can easily be seen and evaluated by outsiders – the value of various draft selections is not one of them.

1 thought on “Draft Advice

  1. rbj

    The baseball draft is a real crapshoot. You can pick someone in the first round, with reasonable expectations, pay an exorbitant amount, and then have Brien Taylor hurt his arm unrelated to baseball and never make the bigs. You can also draft someone very late, as a favor to friends, and Mike Piazza will be going to the Hall of Fame.

    But then the Nationals pick both Strasburger and Harper and look where they are playing today.

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